Quick big board preamble:
I'm sure this board will look much different than most others, but I do feel as though I have valid reasoning behind my rankings and have put in work that I feel proud of to back them up. I'm sure I will be wrong on quite a few players, and that is ok, but I encourage anyone who reads this to examine reasonings and process on why players are ranked where they are, not just on my own board, but anyone else's as well. It is possible to be right on the ranking of a player, without having a valid reasoning behind it, and I think that is important to keep in mind. Another piece of food for thought is that each year consensus boards and general group think on where player's perceived ranges should be prove to include some big misses. I will obviously miss on players too, and my point is that because there is no exact formula to evaluating the draft, there should be an open mind to opinions that stray far from general viewpoints. I never set out to make my board wildly different, but often times it just ends up that way with the conclusions I come away with after analyzing film. All that said, I hope you enjoy my big board and the brief explanations behind some of my rankings. If you find yourself wanting far more in-depth reasoning and evaluations, I would encourage you to check out any of the podcasts we've done on 80+ prospects this year. I'm very thankful for all those who continue to support both my work individually, and Upside Swings, and hope that in some small way I've been able to make this draft cycle as enjoyable for you as it was for me.
Tier 1 (Generational)
1. Victor Wembanayama
A truly generational talent, Victor Wembanyama is rightfully the unanimous #1 pick amongst evaluators. Offensively his footwork, especially for his size, is ridiculous. Using it in combination with his 8'0" wingspan to get himself some of the easiest looks around the rim imaginable as a finisher. The handle is very reactive, and although best utilized in the open court, there is some half court viability to it. The touch is at a very high level, and the mechanics of his three point shot, including release point, energy transfer, and footwork, makes him very buyable as a floor spacing threat at the next level. Defensively Victor's size obviously plays a huge (no pun intended) part in his effectiveness both as a rim deterrent and also in recovery situations. He's able to take more gambles than most players probably would because of how quickly he can make up for any lost ground with his length. He loves to bait opponents into thinking they have open lanes or shots before he covers ground at an unparalleled level to alter any plans. Although his size helps, Wemby's skill also is very much on display defensively as someone who is able to track multiple players and general directional shifts on the court simultaneously, allowing him to always position himself in the best possible way to alter shots. Always in the mix for rebounds, Wembanyama doesn't need ideal positioning or elite load time as a leaper to consistently be a threat to pull down boards on either end thanks to his physical gifts. There's no real glaring weakness to Wembanyama's game coming in, and it makes sense to everyone why he is in this spot.
Tier 2 (Worthy of the first pick in most drafts)
2. Scoot Henderson
In most drafts I would likely take Scoot Henderson first overall, unfortunately for him he is in the same class as Wembanyama. With possibly the quickest first step I have ever evaluated, Scoot's burst ability allows him to be a consistent rim pressure threat and advantage creator. These windows of opportunity he creates so often are capitalized upon in a variety of ways. He is a versatile finisher around the rim, one of the better passers in this class, and a constant stop and pop mid-range threat. The three point shot has yet to come around to a reliable degree, but he does show pull up equity shooting off the dribble, and in due time should be able to weaponize his shot from deep, even if not to a level high above league average. The acceleration, deceleration, strength, and verticality all combine to make Scoot a truly elite athlete from the guard position. Defensively Scoot is more than capable of holding his own at the point of attack and on the perimeter, but general consistency in those regards are a work in progress. His processing helps him see plays develop off ball and he has the speed to pick off passes and explode into transition before anyone can come close to contesting him. There's just too much to like about Scoot's primary initiator upside as a creator for me to have him any lower than this.
Tier 2.5 (Top 3 Worthy)
3. Amen Thompson
Amen makes a strong case to be the second best prospect in this class for me, but I just can't quite get there. Another insane athlete, Amen is as close to a 1 of 1 prospect in terms of movement and quick twitch athleticism that you can come across. The overall traits Amen possesses as an athlete tie into much of what he accomplishes on the court. He has an elite first step, not only in terms of speed, but also stride length, that allows him to get past his defender with general ease much of the time. Once that separation is created and established, Amen takes advantage as a very skilled passer who can exploit essentially any opening the defense gives to him. His ability to take off from far beyond the rim and just float in the air while finishing in a wide variety of ways on either side with either hand, makes his rim pressure all the more tantalizing. Much like Scoot, Amen will absolutely destroy opponents in transition, whether it is by leading the fast break himself or making a nicely placed hit-ahead pass. The glaring weakness for Amen is his lack of shooting ability, and personally I don't have much faith in it ever being much of a strength for him. That said, it should speak volumes that I have him as high as I do. Even when in the paint or mid range, Amen can create clean looks for himself with his stellar footwork. The enticement of Amen doesn't end there however, his impact on defense is quite clear. There is a lot of high level processing Amen executes on that end to make the reads he does. Whether it is at the point of attack, off-ball on the wing, or as a help side rim protector, there are quite a few roles he can take on any given game. His athleticism is prevalent on the defensive end too, with active hands and elite ground coverage. There's a lot to love about Amen even despite the lack of shooting, and I think it is well worth taking that package with the third pick.
Tier 3 (Lotto picks)
Despite all being in the same tier, the rankings in this one are fairly firm. I value Anthony Black significantly more as a prospect than Kobe Bufkin even though they share the same tier. I had trouble deciphering exactly where to put a tier break this high up, and ultimately decided against doing so. As each tier goes on just know that there is more numerical fluidity within them and at a certain point it becomes more about tier than ranking number, this however is not that tier.
4. Anthony Black
There's few players I have the level of confidence that I do in Anthony Black in being a highly impactful contributor to winning, and that is ultimately why I have him here. Black's selling point is obviously the passing. He is probably best in class in this category when you consider all aspects. The touch on delivery, pinpoint accuracy, and directional manipulation all make for an elite level passer. Anthony's handle to access passes is not elite by any means, but he is a great manipulator due to crafty footwork, head fakes, and hesitations, and often times that is all he needs to find holes in the defense and make a needle threading pass. His processing is the real secret sauce that makes it all work though. Black has the innate ability to see multiple layers beyond an initial move, and understand what dynamics that changes, all within a split second. Because of this, there's fewer mistakes to be had when the ball is in his hands. With better spacing around him at the next level and more transition opportunities, I am banking on all of these key traits to be even more accessible. Yet another player who currently struggles with an outside shot, there is hope with Black to at least get to an average level as a spot up shooter with the consistent touch he shows as a finisher around the rim. Anthony brings versatility defensively too. He has a strong lower body and can take on wings, and is always rotationally sound. Currently he is a work in progress at the point of attack with poor screen navigation and inconsistent footwork, but in time I think he should be viable there too, and given his size, will be a hassle for opposing guards. Overall the reason I have Black this high is because of the fact that even if the shot never comes around at a level that allows him to be the lead initiator for a team, he still possesses high end skills as a connective passer, finisher, and versatile defender that is highly valuable in an off-ball role. I have a tough time betting against players with the level of feel Anthony Black possesses.
5. Cam Whitmore
Although there are valid concerns some have with Whitmore, I am fully in on him as a top five prospect. At first I was admittedly apprehensive on Cam this high, but with each game of his that I watched, his path to a successful two-way scoring wing just became more and more clear to me. Much of it starts with his athleticism and how uses it. Cam's strength is up there with the very best in this class, and he absolutely powers his way to the rim no matter the opposition. His first step at his size is really impressive, and the athleticism as a leaper, whether it's off one or two feet, gives him quite the upside as both a finisher and free throw generator. There's real upside for him to be just as effective off-ball too as possibly the best cutter in the class. I don't have too much concern about Whitmore's shooting outlook long term, I think he can self-create and generate space really well, and he's shown many flashes of pull-up ability. It may take a couple of years, but I don't really see it being anything less than serviceable both off the dribble and off the catch. There's obvious missed reads as a passer that is lacking with Cam, and although it would be nice if he was able to make some more of the obvious reads that he can create access to, I think it is attainable for him to at least develop simplistic reads at his age to be a serviceable ball mover. Cam's frame really aids him on the other end too. He has the speed and strength to guard a wide array of players both on the perimeter and in the paint. I think he can keep the pace with quick driver's off the catch and handle himself against even bigs with his strength, despite his height. Although he might not be the most dynamic offensive player, I view the path to being a top scoring option as clearer than most might, and think he can provide a level of versatility defensively. Being one of the younger players in this class, I think it's reasonable to assume that there is plenty of growth ahead of him, which could make for a very valuable self-creating three level scorer and versatile defense.
6. Nick Smith Jr
This is the first real prospect I seem to have a very different outlook on relative to most. I understand he had a poor season in terms of production, and I won't even disagree too much on that, but I think context is everything with him. The main factor here of course is injury, where he dealt with nagging knee problems throughout the season that seemed to prevent him from ever fully getting into the flow of things or allow him to build upon any possible momentum. The other aspect of note is Arkansas' roster. The limited spacing was a major factor for everyone, but with Smith Jr the role that was asked of him played a large part into how he is perceived as a prospect. To briefly pull back the curtain on my evaluation process, I generally try to watch as much high school tape as I can during the summer on players who are perceived to be first-round one-and-dones headed into college. After seeing many of NSJ's college games, I realized this was not the same prospect I had evaluated prior to his time at Arkansas. Not only did the injury seem to have some lasting effects, but his primarily off-ball centric role offensively next to Anthony Black hid some of the best parts of Smith Jr. In high school he was his team's lead initiator for much of his time on the court, and regularly made some impressive passes on the move and out of pick-and-roll. While he still had occasional flashes of this in college, it was not anywhere near as prevalent. His season was full of down shooting numbers across the board, but that was never much of a weakness for him prior, and the elite touch was still very evident on a lot of his makes. Finishing has long been my concern with Nick Smith and he didn't do much to dissuade that this season, but I still firmly believe in his ability to get downhill and stop quickly for a pull-up or floater with strong efficiency, despite having some issues once he gets to the rim. Defensively I think Nick bucks the typical viewed weakness of the "combo guard" archetype, by moving well players along the perimeter and not over gambling much. I understand this ranking is somewhat jarring for most, but hopefully my reasoning helps it to make some more sense.
7. Brandon Miller
Let's get this out of the way, I still very much like Brandon Miller as a prospect. Yes I have him lower than the vast majority, but he is still very much a great lottery prospect, just not quite to the very top level that most seem to value him as. There is a strong case to be made that Miller is the best shooter in this class, although at a certain point it is just splitting hairs for me. I think he has some of the best movement shooting upside of anyone in this class, especially for someone of his size, and the touch is really good. The space creation I think is viable at an NBA level despite the fluid handle being somewhat loose at times. Once downhill I felt that both the finishing and passing reads improved throughout his season at Alabama. He became more creative and reactive as a passer, who may not be a strong bet to consistently create or make complex passing reads, but I'm more than comfortable projecting as a player who can make the right reads and be a solid connective passer. As a finisher the verticality really showed itself, where I think in combination with the touch allows him to be a strong three level scoring threat. Defensively I don't have many qualms with his on-ball prowess. I think he has rather good hands with fast reactive time to alter shots and passes. As for the off-ball outlook I am less enticed with his lack of being able to simultaneously track multiple players and consistently position himself properly between his man and the ball. Often times he found himself trying to catch up after being back-cut due to some ball watching and losing track of his man. Again, Miller at seven is no knock on how I view him as a prospect, I just don't see the same higher end outcomes that I might with the names I have ahead of him, and at the very top that matters a fair bit to me.
8. Cason Wallace
One of, if not the best off-ball defender I have ever evaluated, Cason Wallace brings two-way value as a guard right out of the gate. The off-ball tracking ability and timing of when to make plays as a disruptor and event creator on that end make him truly elite in this aspect. I would not say he is a lockdown defender or elite as an on-ball defender, but he does hold his own the majority of the time. Offensively I loved watching his growth throughout his time at Kentucky when he was burdened with heavier offensive duties in a point guard role. I thought he started to look much more comfortable as the season went on operating the pick-and-roll and generating more pull-up looks for himself. The shooting looks more than projectable at the next level, and he impressed as a finisher. There's very few guards that come into the league projecting as elite on the defensive end, and Cason is just that. There's nothing that stands out as overly special for him on offense, but there are plenty of viable ways he can provide value to his team on that end, making Wallace a very worthy top ten pick in my eyes.
9. Gradey Dick
In a draft absolutely loaded with high level shooters, Gradey Dick still finds himself standing out as one of the best. Watching him, you feel as though almost every shot he puts up from beyond the arc is going in. He can stop on a dime and pull up for a three in transition, set himself extremely quickly coming off of screens, and of course hit spot ups. Though shooting is where he'll primarily derive the majority of his offensive value, he offers more beyond it. There's strong off-ball movement skills with him as someone that is always finding a way to ingratiate himself within the offense, whether it be as a cutter, decoy, or connective passer. He'll struggle to consistently create off the dribble, but he does use a lot of craft via pump-fakes, footwork, etc. Even though he's not a crazy athlete by any means, he does have nice length and verticality to make himself a lob threat off cuts as well. Defensively is where a lot of people will have concerns, and I honestly agree when it comes to his on-ball outlook on that end, however, he is possibly the best rotational wing defender in this class with how quickly he recognizes where he needs to be and never missing a beat. The verticality showed itself on this end too as a help side rim protector or when making up for teammate's missed rotations in scramble situations. High level shooting wings who can still provide some strong value defensively in some capacity, are worth taking in the lottery, I think Dick has the chance to be even more than that.
10. Brice Sensabaugh
Another incredible shooter, Sensabaugh is someone I think is just a bonifide scorer in a variety of ways. Though he has a fairly solid and tight handle and can dribble with either hand, he isn't overly explosive out of it and can't create a ton of separation, that said it only takes the smallest window for Brice to take advantage as a shot maker. He can generate pull-up power quickly and has such great touch that even the toughest of contests can't dissuade. He loves to stop and take turnaround mid-range jumpers, which to his credit he can make with ease, but he would benefit from getting himself to the rim more as a player that has shown comfortability attacking from either side of the court with his strong frame. As a passer he is mostly making the simple, but efficient reads when getting downhill or keeping the ball moving around the perimeter, though he does a good job of spotting cutters when stationary. I know a lot of people are concerned with his defense, and I do think it is definitely a weakness. I don't really see it as a lost cause with the scrappy effort and motor he brings, but he definitely has his woes as an on-ball defender who gets blown by and can be a little late as a rotator. He may be better suited more as a low man rotationally who can use his strong frame rather than as a guard flying around the perimeter. I do get some of the concerns, but I think this is the spot where I feel comfortable taking a player with some self-creation equity and the level of shooting touch that Brice possesses.
11. Taylor Hendricks
Taylor Hendricks is simple, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. Offensively he is a shooter with the versatility to make more than just catch and shoot spot-ups. He has shown his ability to drift in either direction while in the air, or come off of screens and square himself for a quick shot with his great touch. Outside of the shooting, the way I view most of Hendrick's offense is through assisted interior finishes or cleaning up on offensive rebounds. His footwork is really raw and the handle is probably even rawer, limiting much self-creation equity. Defensively Hendricks is at his best as the low man rotationally, and protecting the rim, especially from the help position. He will struggle out on the perimeter with where his current footwork is, despite being a pretty mobile mover as a big. A floor spacing, rim protecting 4 is every team's dream, and Hendricks checks both boxes. There will be some limitations, especially offensively, but ideally his role doesn't require much complexity on that end, allowing for his simplicity to not be any less valuable or impactful.
12. Kobe Bufkin
Kobe's upside, as a player I can envision on the court in closing lineups in the playoffs, is what has him in this tier for me. On offense I think he provides a very quick driving ability, though currently overly reliant on his left. Once at the rim, the finishing is about as good as it gets for a guard. He doesn't have the highest verticality, but the hang-time and in-air versatility adaption makes him quite enticing in that regard. The passing is good enough to be a connector who can create opportunities by ripping quick off the catch and getting himself downhill before the defense has time to rotate. Need some shooting from him? No problem, Bufkin can do that too. Maybe not at an elite or overly diverse level, but as a catch and shoot guy I think it is pretty reasonable to view him as a more than serviceable threat from outside. The real reason I can see the ability to play in closing playoff game lineups is his defensive value. Bufkin might not be necessarily to the very elite top level, but he is going to be a constant pest at the point of attack that can stick with guys as they move off-ball. A guard that can do just a bit of everything and can finish and defend at a high level makes his pathway to providing value easy for me to see.
Tier 4 (First-Rounders)
This is a large tier, and I again decided against trying to figure out exactly where to attempt to break it up into smaller tiers. It is still not quite interchangeable or fluid, but it is less set in stone (no pun intended) between each spot than the tier previous.
13. Terquavion Smith
I understand this is going to be an eyebrow raiser, and I've yet to find someone who buys Terquavion to the level that I do, but allow me to explain. Smith is a proficient off the dribble shooter who can create space in a big way. Either with crazy stepbacks or a high, yet very controlled handle, Smith is one of the best space creators in this class. He can be a strong pull-up shooter, relocation shooter, and spot up shooter. As we all know there is more to scoring than just shooting though, so this is the part where I bring to light Terq's explosiveness. There's very few players in this class more explosive out of dribble moves than Smith, and it is something he can now take more advantage of as an improved finisher despite his extremely thin frame. Last year Terq was noticeably phased when facing any sort of contact near the rim, but this year he seemed to be able to take a bit more contact and adjust as a finisher in the air better. I'm not saying it is going to be a strength of his, especially early on, but I think there is room for the rim pressure he puts on defenses to be meaningful as time goes on. The best way to view Smith as a prospect in my mind is as a scorer, and any playmaking you get out of that is a bonus. Terq isn't necessarily a bad passer, and clearly he can create advantages, but it's not what you should be drafting him for. He is at his best when looking to score. He has learned to leverage that scoring a bit more as a passer, and can be a solid heading downhill with simplistic reads, but isn't reading the defense as a playmaker to any sort of advanced level. This season I do feel as though Terquavion addressed some of his defensive woes a bit. He is still not likely to be a plus on that end, but he did clearly focus on improving his gap sealing when switching on the perimeter and reigning back the gambling a bit. He'll still frustrate the heck out of you at times by taking some ill advised shots early into the possession, or getting bullied by stronger players defensively, but overall I just really buy the combination of shooting, space creation, and explosiveness with Smith.
14. Brandin Podziemski
After a fantastic collegiate season, Brandin really stood out to me in a few exceptional ways. I guess the place to start is with the passing. In case you couldn't already tell, I am a sucker for high feel players who are fantastic passers, and Podziemski fits that description. He is more than comfortable operating out of pick and rolls, often times using high levels of touch on pocket passes to lead the roller to an easy finish or kicking out to shooter directly to their pocket. He usually needs screens to get himself downhill, but is smart in how he uses them both as a passer and as a shooter. Once he is downhill he is a handful to deal with as a pull-up + floater shooter, pace manipulator, and passer both to the interior and perimeter. The shooting is what gives me optimism in viewing Brandin as equally valuable as an on or off-ball guard. He is very comfortable shooting off the catch and highly efficient in doing so, even showing off some relocation and sidestep chops as a gatherer with his feet. The main concern most will have with Brandin is his lack of traditional athleticism, and while that may be limiting to a point, I do not think it is to any sort of detrimental degree. He may have some trouble defensively against burstier guards at the point of attack, and won't have much upside to be effective in recovery situations (especially with a somewhat short wingspan), but I think his understanding of space and how to operate within it prevents him from being any sort of full on liability in every situation. He is generally pretty rotationally sound and not mistake prone off-ball so I am not overly concerned. The final point worth hitting on with Podz is his motor as a rebounder. I'm not sure I have ever evaluated a guard who gets after it on the boards the way that Podziemski does. It seems like after every shot is released he is right there in the mix amongst the bigs fighting for a board, and often times coming out successfully with the ball after timing his jumps well and scrapping for it in the air. I feel fairly confident in Brandin providing value as a guard who can play on or off the ball and allow for some lineup versatility based upon what his team may need.
15. Dariq Whitehead
I am a believer in evaluating what I can on the court and leaving the off-court concerns up to the teams investing in players. Not only in terms of "character traits" that I just don't have the access to in any meaningful regard, but also injury concerns. Dariq clearly has a lot of skepticism with how available he will be after dealing with multiple lower body injuries, but I also don't have the access to his medical reports, and even if I did I would not know how to properly analyze it, leading to me to not factor those things into Whitehead's, or anyone else's evaluation. So focusing on what I can, I think Dariq is yet another strong shooter in this class. There are flashes of movement shooting and pulling up off the dribble. I also really enjoy his leveraging of the shot. He can really rip it fast off the catch and get downhill, but is very good with his deceleration to catch defenders off guard and off balance as he pulls up from the mid-range. Where the injury repercussions really came to light for me this year during his time at Duke was the finishing, where he didn't look quite as explosive around the rim as he did in high school. I think there are reasons to be optimistic about his upside on the other end of the court too. His defensive screen navigation really impressed me, and I think he does a fairly good job mirroring guys on the perimeter who maybe aren't overly bursty. There's obviously some tough things to analyze after this season at Duke, with poor spacing and minimal sample size, so I would encourage anyone to try and watch more of his Montverde games from high school as it is probably worth more weight in his evaluation than it might be for other players in this class.
16. Sidy Cissoko
One of my favorite players in this class from a pure enjoyment and entertainment perspective, Cissoko has a lot of funk with developing functionality. Where he is going to be his best as a scorer is via his slashing. He generates a lot of power and length from each step he takes and is very controlled as a finisher around the rim. The footwork reactivity and calculations as well as body contortion and directional changes make for a very special slashing prospect. Cissoko doesn’t have enough of a handle to create slashing opportunities on his own in the half court due to poor counters and not enough explosion out of moves, but it should still be serviceable enough to be a second side attacker and secondary creator. The passing is another huge aspect of Sidy’s value on the offensive end. He can make functional connective reads in the half court, and is very comfortable doing so on the move. His passes can be really impressive displays of touch, delivery creativity, and accuracy, while at times being overly ambitious in trying to squeeze opportunities that just aren’t there. The shot is the big offensive question with him, and personally I am not overly optimistic about it. I think the timing can be a tad off relative to how defenses close out on him, the touch isn’t great, and the self generated off the dribble looks just tend to be overly forced. The footwork on attempted post-ups, even against opposing guards, is very raw. On the other end I actually am pretty enticed by his effectiveness as an off-ball low man rotator who can get to the help spots very quickly and act as a help side rim protector, while using his length to disrupt passes that he recognizes quickly. On-ball I think he is best suited defending wings and forwards with his length and strength and was impressed with his ability to stick with drivers and stay vertical to contest shots at the rim. Sidy is going to be a bit of a project in some ways in the short-term, but I think there is real two way equity with him as a versatile player on both ends.
17. Andre Jackson Jr
Yes he is going to be 22 years old during his rookie year, no he can not shoot, and I don't believe at this point he ever will be able to, but I have him this high because I think he is close to elite in every other way. Let's just get the obvious out of the way and address the elephant in the room, Andre Jackson Jr is not only a bad shooter, but a bad scorer. He just has 0 touch and can even miss at point blank range multiple times in a row. I know, that is not the greatest start to a pitch as to why I have him 17 on my board, but it's a glaring weakness of his that needed to be addressed. That said I think it is reasonable to consider every other aspect of basketball as an overwhelming strength of his. Stick with me as I try and help you understand what I see in him to justify a ranking this high. One of the best passers in this class, Andre can thread the needle into tightest of openings. He does sometimes get overly audacious with his attempts, but I am a believer in that being a fairly fixable trait. He is making some of the quickest passing reads you will see and it can come from on the move or stationary, and be windows he creates on his own or touch pass hockey assists. Although he struggles to use it for his own scoring purposes, Jackson does have a fairly quick handle and is rather explosive out of it, allowing him to get downhill and make some reads seemingly out of thin air. He has the potential to be a transition demon who can get coast to coast on his own very quickly, or make the perfect lead pass for someone else to finish the fast break. Apart from the passing, Jackson does have other strengths as an offensive player, including constant off-ball movement as a space filler, some of the best guard screens you'll ever see, and general opportunistic cutting. Defensively he is a menace who can give opponents fits in multiple different forms. Whether it is as a lockdown point of attack defender, a well-timed pass interceptor off-ball, or even as a help side rim protector when he decides to display his impressive verticality, Andre Jackson will always provide value to a team on that end. His rebounding also stands out as a box-out guy who is willing to go up and fight for boards amongst the trees. Lastly, the motor is a huge factor with Andre Jackson. It's not usually something that I often heavily weigh into my evaluations, but it is also not something that often pops out in the way that it does with Jackson. From tip-off to final buzzer, Andre will be flying around the court with the same amount of energy no matter where in the game the clock is. I know this is a tough sell, but ultimately I want to buy into players that I believe help lead to wins, and despite having a severe shortcoming and being older, I think Andre Jackson can do that, hopefully it's a bit easier to understand why.
18. Jarace Walker
I am sure this is where the biggest portion of disagreement will come from, but as I stated in the beginning preamble, consensus has been wrong at the top before, and I think there is sound logic in listening to divergent viewpoints. Jarace is the player that I would most highly recommend people listen to the deep dive podcast episode we did on him. I think that is where I can best explain why I am so much lower than seemingly everyone else on him. That is not to say I dislike him, but I just struggle to see what everyone else does as a top 8-ish type prospect. So let’s get into it. Offensively speaking I think a big point of disagreement is the shooting outlook. I am not sold. I think the touch is fairly inconsistent with spot-ups, pull-ups, floaters, and non-dunk finishes around the rim. I’ll get to it in a little bit as to why it makes more sense on the defensive end, but on offense I think he is best suited as a roll man at the center position. I think he is a strong roller who gets off of the ground quickly and is very capable of executing some impressive short roll passes. Once at the rim he can either be a lob threat or use his strength to do a single power dribble and muscle his way inside for a finish and/or foul. I love the length and strength he has, but it does feel like he is a limited in-air finisher simply due to the virtue of not having great hang time, despite some solid vertical ability in regards to load time and height off the ground. The passing is very odd to me as someone who can flash some really impressive reactive reads out of the post, but more often seems to be overly pre-meditated and can be a tad late to pull back on reads that are no longer available. Most people will point towards Walker’s main sell being on the defensive end, and while I think he can be a plus defender, I just don’t see it to an elite level. I think he is an explosive help defender who can really be suffocating on double teams, but if the player he leaves open is somehow able to get back the ball I feel as though Walker often times struggles to recover. I think he is a fairly decent lateral mover on the perimeter, but don’t love the footwork enough to feel comfortable projecting it to a level that can be sustainable for long periods of time against a multitude of matchups. In which case leads me to view him as more of a center on that end as well. While there might be some height concerns I think for the most part the strength, length, and load time as a leaper should allow him to be viable in this role, however it isn’t perfect. He loves to let guys get around him and try to protect the rim from behind as a shot blocker, but at times can overestimate his ability to do so. I also think an underrated aspect of rim protection is in-air adjustment. As I already mentioned on the offensive side, I don’t really love Walker’s ability to do so due to poor hang-time, and I think that is also the case for me on the defensive end too. I think he can position himself correctly and be a good vertical defender, but in the air has trouble changing directions to better alter shots near the rim. I understand the intrigue and why so many people have Walker as high as they do, but for me as I looked closer I have more questions as to just how elite the defense can be and what offensive heights can be reached.
19. Maxwell Lewis
This is the sort of range where it starts to get a bit harder to be as confident in prospects, but the upside makes it too enticing to drop someone like Lewis much further for me. Max Lewis was one of the hardest players to try and put a value on in this class for me. There’s so much to like, but so much that is underdeveloped. I’ll start with the shooting, because I do think that is something I am fairly confident in translating. He gets some really nice elevation on his jumpers and does not let contests bother him much. He can create pretty decent space for himself too, but up to this point hasn’t utilized it as much as he probably should as a shooter, preferring to rather try and attack with a lengthy, but overall average first step. He does get some good shin angles as a driver and overall is a pretty flexible player. I really enjoy his passing going downhill and even out of the pick and roll, where he is excellent at keeping pace with his roller to throw a lead pass for easy finishes. As a finisher it is very much a mixed bag with Lewis on multiple levels. He has great length and uses it with well timed arm extensions to get easier rim attempts for himself, but the touch is wildly up and down and his very thin frame can knock him off course. Off-ball I think Lewis could be a lot more effective than he was in college, but he has yet to show much of a willingness to do so. He can be found ball-watching on the perimeter and not taking open cutting lanes towards the rim too often. On the occasion he is trying to take advantage of a cutting opportunity, he has an odd propensity to lose the ball at a noticeable volume when receiving passes. He has great length and flexibility defensively to be a factor on defense, and can shift his body weight from one side to the other rather quickly, but the footwork can be a bit raw and his lack of strength can be exploited. His off-ball defense is just not really existent right now. He shows flashes of good positioning and rotations at times when not ball watching, but once there he is just standing and not really being a factor with any sort of aggression. Lewis is a really odd prospect who shows promise in a lot of ways. It can be easy to see how he succeeds as a lanky ball handler who can pass, shoot, and hopefully finish at a more consistent rate in time, but the outcomes of the defense never coming around to a meaningful enough level and the offense never being fully polished also exist, making him a tricky eval.
20. Colby Jones
Colby Jones lacks athleticism or any sort of elite skill to hang his hat on, but I feel he just helps his team in so many ways that he's worth taking as a top 20 pick. A very quick processor as a passer, and great accuracy, Colby can operate as a steady presence as a lead initiator, even with his fairly average burst. I also buy Colby as an off guard or even a small ball wing who can act as a second side attacker and secondary playmaking connective passer, with crafty footwork and comfortability finishing from either side. The shooting seems pretty serviceable too, whether it is catch and shoot threes, or nifty mid-range shots he created via savvy pivots and fakes, I think Jones will be able to fill a wide array of roles for his team any given night. Defensively I think he is best off the ball as a quick rotator and underdiscussed strength to take on some wings. While some may see the lack of any real stand out skill as a reason to be lower on Colby, I see it as a fairly safe pick to be a rotational player that doesn't have many liabilities.
21. Ausar Thompson
I already know there's a lot of questions as to why there is an eighteen spot difference between the Thompson twins on my board, so allow me to elaborate. I do think he is a very good athlete who has some exceptional defensive traits, but I think where I tend to diverge quite a bit from most is with his processing and shooting. It is also worth mentioning that he is not the same level of athlete as Amen. Amen creates a lot of advantages not because of a great handle, but because of top percentile athleticism, and while Ausar is a very good athlete in his own right, that meaningful difference prevents Ausar from winning on the athletic margins, which matters when neither are winning with exceptional ball handling. In the halfcourt, I think Ausar has some significant processing drawbacks, most notably as a lead initiator. I think he takes a while to see things and can be late to his attempts at exploiting windows of opportunity as a passer and driver. However, he does seem to be quite good in a role where he is able to see things develop off-ball and be a very effective connective passer. While he can still be a strong passer in this sort of role, I do not buy his shooting outlook to any meaningful enough extent, or much more than his brother's. Without the ability to shoot, and poor touch on finishes, I think it does limit some of the upside others may see. However I do think despite maybe not being as versatile as Amen as a finisher, he is more inviting of contact near the rim and shows flashes of being able to play though it. Defensively much about what I said describing Amen is also applicable to Ausar, though I'm not quite as sold on the elite off-ball defensive outcomes due to the slower processing. All that said I still do like Ausar as a prospect, he remains a first-rounder after all, I just view the differences of potential higher end outcomes as much more stark than most.
22. Leonard Miller
I mentioned funk and developing functionality with Miller’s teammate Cissoko already, but nobody embodies that more in this class than Leonard Miller. One of the most unique movers you’ll ever lay eyes on, Miller is a very fluid and flexible basketball player in a big man’s frame. There is some ball handling upside with Leonard, even in the half court, as someone who moves synchronously with his handle at an impressive level, regardless of size. This gives him some creation equity, but I’ll get into the ways he maximizes it. As a passer Miller has no regard for the after effects of a pass, meaning he will make a pass he immediately sees and not fully process the secondary effects of how the court dynamics may change. To his credit some of the passes can be rather impressive, but it is not always putting his teammates in the best position once they get the ball or is the best available pass to be made at the time he throws it. His finishing often times can be eye popping. Miller is versatile, can hang in the air for a while, adjusts well to what the defense is giving him, and has fantastic touch. The shooting is so weird (as is many things) with Leonard. He has worked a lot to get some sort of consistency with the base of his mechanics within his lower body, but it is still very unnatural and uncomfortable looking. I mentioned the touch closer to the rim as being very impressive, but it seems to dissipate quite a bit further out. I don’t think he is to be written off as a long range shooter by any means, but I am definitely not banking on it as being even at least serviceable in spot up situations. With the way Miller moves I think there is real switching upside for him defensively, but he’ll need to refine some aspects. I think the footwork is good for the most part, but at times can lack a bit of consistency. The closeouts to me need to be reigned in quite a bit with the aggressiveness he has by putting all of his momentum into them and allowing his opponent to blow by while he is in the air. If he can get his timing as a rotator and leaper down a bit more there is also some primary rim protection upside with how quick he can leave the ground. Miller has a lot of tools and aspects that make it very enticing to buy in, but there’s still a lot of questions to be answered for me to fully buy into the gamble higher than this.
23. Keyonte George
Despite having him down here I actually very much enjoy Keyonte as a prospect. His main draw is as a scorer, and even more specifically as a shooter. I really like his deep range, pull-up ability, and touch from outside. The difficult aspect is the shot selection, really from every level. I think it is in part due to his processing not being at a super high level, but the fact remains that he doesn’t always make the best decisions with the ball in his hands, which as a player who primarily derives his value from scoring, I think that is a concern worth giving some credence to. The other aspect is the finishing. I think the touch lacks in this area a bit and he isn’t as explosive as you might think around the rim when looking at his frame. I like his ability to get downhill with fairly good burst and change of pace on straight line drives, though explosion out of dribble moves is a little lackluster. Once he has that downhill momentum however, that is where some more concerns start to pop up for me. The lack of awareness from where the help is coming from or understanding of implications after a pass is made within the changing court dynamics seems to be a bit behind. I actually think he sees a lot of passes well, but processing and timing isn’t always to the level it needs to be. Defensively the on-ball stuff pops to me. I think he can be a viable point of attack defender who moves well with opponents and can take contact well with his strong frame. I think off-ball the processing issues can rear its ugly head a bit where he isn’t making the right reads and can be a little bit over gambly. He has his flaws, but the value of a solid on-ball defender and shooter at the least, makes Keyonte worth taking this high up for me, and he’s young enough that you can still hope for development in a couple of key areas.
24. Julian Strawther
I think Strawther is a pretty easy case to make as a first-rounder. He is one of the most versatile finishers in this class, something that has stood out with him since high school, and the shooting is lethal as a spot-up guy who took a big step this year taking more off the dribble. A very quick self-setter, he can get a shot off lightning quick and let the touch do the rest. He isn’t going to be tasked with much passing responsibility, not that he is necessarily a bad passer, but he is more of a ball mover who will thrive more off-ball at the next level as a play finisher. Defense has always been the downfall of Strawther, but this year he took some impressive strides in my opinion as an on-ball defender who can hang on the perimeter with most non-primary ball handlers. Off-ball defense remains the biggest area of concern for me as a player that seems to be consistently behind tracking his man. There’s not a ton of dynamism to Julian’s game, but it is efficient and easy envision him as a rotation player for a long time.
25. Julian Phillips
As I explained with Nick Smith Jr earlier, I tend to watch as many high school games of potential one-and-dones as I can, and because of this I still believe in Phillip's ability as a catch and shoot player. He's offensively fairly limited beyond that though. He doesn't flash much upside passing wise beyond just being someone that can keep the ball moving without it sticking to him for too long. The handle is pretty bad and limits his driving ability, especially when you take into account the poor shin angles, choppy stride length, and lack of power generated, which combined altogether would be a developmental challenge that fundamentally changes him as a mover. The lack of driving ability limits him to basically just being an off ball threat who in due time one would hope can leverage his shot and develop his handle enough to a point that he can attack closeouts. The offense is obviously rough and limited, so why do I have him as a first rounder? Well as you might've guessed by now it's the value he brings on defense. He isn't a high level event creator, but he is almost always in the right places as an off-ball mover and rotator. He is good at peeling off as a switch defender and sealing gaps, although sometimes you are left wanting more aggressiveness as a help defender. It's hard for me to see a wing who can be a very good defender and spot up shooter not being worth taking a chance on in the first, so Julian will fulfill that prophecy on my board.
26. Amari Bailey
There are not many better point of attack guard defenders in this class. Amari is a real hound when it comes to preventing opponents from driving towards the paint. He has supersonic hip flipping ability that would make even Shakira blush. Sticking alongside drivers towards the paint is not a problem either. He is always giving them minimal airspace on their way downhill. The one area of improvement needed with his on-ball defense is his screen navigation and what angles he takes coming off of them. As an off-ball defender he is constantly engaged and with his man, and is great at closing out, but often leaves you wanting more as an event creator. On offense Bailey thrives as a rim pressure guy. He is a very adjustable finisher who has solid two-footed leaping ability. The first step is good off the catch or off of screens, but the explosion out of his handle isn't to a point where it is NBA level projectable on a consistent basis. The shot and touch are not great, but on low volume as a spot up shooter I can see it as being serviceable. Bailey is going to have to improve on reading the floor in totality as a driver though. When on the move he is not always seeing teammates and is overly focused on just getting to the rim. If he isn't able to get all the way to the rim I don't have a ton of concern with how crafty his footwork is in the mid-range. Bailey is definitely a player I could see being a valuable defensive piece for a team, who brings enough value on the offensive end as a rim pressure source to be able to garner regular rotation minutes.
27. Kris Murray
A smooth operator, Murray is an intriguing multi-level scorer. He generally isn't creating a ton of space with his handle, but rather taking unconventional rounded angles and movements to make the most of the space drifting that defenders give him. The touch is pretty solid from every level, and especially shows up with him as a shooter from deep. I don't foresee him being an ultra versatile shooter, but feel good about his shooting outlook as a catch and shoot spot up guy. He isn't overly explosive as a finisher, but his understanding of angles once again help him to exploit little cracks in the defense he can find. Super comfortable coming off of screens and just pulling up from mid-range, Murray really is a three level scoring threat. The passing isn't overly impressive, but on drives he is usualy making the right reads, and not making many bad decisions. He's probably best off-ball as a defender in low man positions, but is fairly reliable to just be a solid defender on the wing and not make a ton of mistakes or create much havoc. He might not have the sexiest game, but I think Murray is a pretty solid bet to contribute to a team on both ends.
28. Jett Howard
This will be pretty short. Jett Howard is an incredible shooter with a crazy fast release and beautiful touch. I do not know what else to expect from him at an NBA level. The handle is very tight, especially as an east/west mover, but the shift only allows for him to get a minimal window to get his shot off, as he lacks the ability to get downhill with it more times than not and isn't making any passes out of it. The finishing isn't great to me, not very explosive and not super versatile, but perhaps as an off-ball cutter he can make it work a bit more if he increases the volume of cuts. The passing is basically non existent from my perspective. He is only looking to pass if absolutely necessary because he couldn't get a shot off in time or to make an extra pass to the next closest teammate on the perimeter. Defensively I don't love the outlook. It isn't horrendous, and he isn't lost a ton off-ball, but he has some difficulties containing guys on the perimeter and isn't making many plays on that end. It is worth taking a shooter of Jett's caliber who still might have a shot at being able to self create a little bit and can maybe finish without being a complete liability on defense, but definitely more of a back end first for me.
29. Dereck Lively II
Lively is another pretty simplistic evaluation for me. Definitely more of a rim runner in my eyes who can get bullied in the post against stronger opposing centers and doesn't consistently have the quickest recognition as the primary rim protector. That said I think when he is more of a low man rotationally who has a little bit more time to process where the rim pressure is coming from, he can be a fantastic help side rim protector, with truly insane ground coverage. The wingspan and ground coverage can allow him to take more gambles further out from the rim and still recover in time if needed. On offense the majority of his game will be coming from the dunker's spot as a lob threat with a massive catch radius, or a cleanup type guy off of put-backs. He is a pretty decisive passer who can find cutters for some sleek interior reads. The shooting might be able to stretch to the mid-range as a spot-up guy, but even if he were to get to a point where he could shoot from beyond the arc, I'd project it to be too low volume as a wide open spot-up guy to be super meaningful within an offense. In other words, that is not why I am drafting Lively. I think he can be a solid enough rim runner for a team, who operates well within a limited role.
30. Nadir Hifi
A smaller guard, Hifi is just a really solid operator with the ball in his hands. The place to start is probably with the scoring, especially in regards to the rim pressure. I think he has some of the best shin angles in the class and combines it with some impressive burst to blow by defenders and make some more simplistic but efficient passes out of the mid-range or along the baseline. The finishing for his size is very impressive. He can contort around rim protectors and has great touch, especially off the glass, to get shots that don't even look possible to go in. He loves manipulating defenders with his change of pace, and is probably one of, if not the best in this class at doing so. Off the ball he is a really good cutter, who can shoot a little bit off of movement with good footwork to gather, but has a bit of an odd form with the way he leans back. The burst he has keeps defenders guessing and he is able to leverage that into some pretty good space creation on step-backs. The passing isn't bad, but he is a rare case of seeing reads better on the move vs being stationary. He isn't making overly complex reads, though he can try and get too fancy on his deliveries sometimes. On defense is where a lot of the good ends with Hifi. While he does actually do a good job of staying in front of guys on drives to the rim, he gambles too much at the point of attack, has a short wingspan, is essentially out of plays on that end of the court when hit by a screen, and can't keep up with directional changes. Nadir is one of my favorite players to watch, but realistically has some major limitations on the defensive end while not necessarily being elite as a shooter or passer to compensate fully.
Tier 5 (Early-Seconds)
This is basically where the fluidity within tiers starts. The numerical rankings have not completely lost all weight, but it is getting to that point
31. Marcus Sasser
A super quick first-step, especially attacking off the catch, Sasser is somebody I like as an off-ball guard in a variety of ways. Getting downhill is obviously one of them, and although he isn't making many complex reads once he is on his way towards the rim, he is usually making the right ones. Getting past his defender on his own volition via his handle is a challenge against length, though when he can create space off the dribble, his footwork as a shooter is excellent. When he has the chance to do it off the ball it is even easier to be confident in the shot falling at a pretty efficient level. I am also a big fan of his transition play, whether it is being a blur with his speed and pushing the pace, or pulling up for a three with quick deceleration, Sasser projects to be a handful. Defensively his greatest downfall is just that he is small. Unfortunately he is positionally limited to being a point of attack defender, but in such a role he still executed his job well enough. As an off-ball guard I think Sasser has some real value as a contributor on a good team.
32. Seth Lundy
Seth Lundy has everything you want in a shooter. He can get squared super quick coming off of screens, or not, and can just rely on his movement shooting and touch to carry him. He is a very active mover off the ball, who is always coming off of screens, cutting along the baseline or the perimeter, and forcing his defender to stay engaged. He isn't brining much offensively outside of that however. He is strictly an off-ball player at the next level and the explosiveness as a finisher lacks, though he is often opportunistic enough to catch his defender off guard as a cutter and can use his long wingspan to get the ball up quick. Defensively he is somewhat slow on-ball with both foot speed and hip flexibility, and is better off defending wings when possible. Off-ball his activity remains great as a player who stays engaged and deflects a lot of passes with his wingspan. Lundy is a real simple evaluation, but there is a lot of value with what he can do.
33. Ricky Council IV
Ricky Council IV thrives as a mid-range scorer, but the question of where the rest of the value can be found is something I was determined to answer when diving deep into his film. His handle is pretty tight and very reactive, which despite not being the most explosive out of it, allows him just enough leeway to generally get himself downhill. Ricky loves to pull-up from mid-range, but what is really intriguing to me about how he scores is his finishing. Uber athleticism reigns supreme for him in a lot of instances where he is able to hang in the air with great balance and get a look that he can convert. At the next level I think his rim pressure will also help get him to the free throw line consistently. The shot is interesting because though I am admittedly not a shot doctor, there is nothing glaringly wrong with it, but he just isn't able to convert his attempts on a consistent basis. I don't think it will make him a non-factor at the next level as a spot-up guy, just nothing his team will be able to rely on. He is actually a really good passer on the move too with really nice touch on his deliveries to teammates, but unfortunately it is usually a last resort for Ricky when he does not see a viable pathway to the rim or an open shot. Defensively he does try, but usually it doesn't end up helping much. He gambles way too much and is undisciplined on that end. With his frame he does take contact well and does dig at the nail, but on the perimeter his footwork isn't good and he gets blown by more than he should. In a bench role I like the value Ricky can provide as a scorer and rim pressure guy who can create his own, but the lack of defense and shooting woes prevent him from having any real starter upside for me.
34. Efe Abogidi
One of the more underdiscussed prospects in this entire class to me, Efe is a pretty interesting backup rim runner. The touch on offense is really enticing, so much so that I buy him being a pretty reliable face-up and spot-up mid-range shooter. Beyond that is mostly cleaning up easy finishes, and being a lob threat with his quick load time a leaper and fast rolling. On defense he can defend the pick and roll well with good verticality and a second jump. That's about it for Abogidi, he is fairly simplistic in what he brings, but the level of which he brings it is that of a high caliber backup.
35. Jalen Hood-Schifino
Hood-Schifno's defense is predicated on what he brings offensively, but I view it as a little bit limited. The passing is really good. The touch, the vision, it is all there with him, and his pick and roll passing is generally very well executed. The one drawback is that he seems to read things very quickly, but doesn't always identify the best possible pass available to be made. As an advantage creator I feel JHS has some limitations with his athleticism. The handle is decent, but the initial burst is pretty poor, though he can make up some ground with his subsequential second, third, and fourth steps. At the rim I'm not very huge on his finishing outlook. I think the lack of athleticism really comes into light on this end with how little explosion he gets off the ground and struggles to adapt during the short amount of time he is airborne. I do like the level of comfortability he has as a pull-up shooter. He tends to always be on balance and the touch seems good enough to project his mid-range shots as efficient enough at a serviceable rate. There are some questions with his off-ball spot-up shooting, but overall I see it being translatable enough, even if never a real strength. I think where a lot of my real concerns lie with JHS are on the defensive end. Indiana sparingly played him at the point of attack, because on the rare occasion that is where he was positioned, opponents would take full advantage blowing by him. Off the ball he looses his man too much and misses rotations due to ball watching, but over the course of time hopefully that can shore up a bit. I think Jalen can be a solid backup guard for a team needing a steady pick and roll presence, but ultimately not sure I see surefire starter.
36. Jordan Hawkins
Jordan Hawkins only adds to this class's incredible shooting talent pool. One of the best movement shooters in the class, with strong touch, deceleration as a stop and pop guy, and a super quick release, Jordan doesn't let contests phase him and is the total shooting package. So why he is not in my first round? I don't know what else he brings. He is good at changing speeds to get downhill, but can't do much with it. He is a really poor finisher who avoids contact with his slight frame and struggles to use his touch when there's any sort of pressure around the rim. Possibly even more concerning is his frequent mishaps in regards to vision, not only as a driver with blinders on for teammates, but also for the defense, not fully processing how opponents shift around him. In an off-ball cutting and shooting role I think a team can mitigate a lot of those concerns and just let him focus on what he does best. Defensively Hawkins is likely to be hunted as an on-ball defender, he has some trouble staying in front of guys at the point of attack, and once an advantage is established Hawkins has trouble in any type of recovery setting. Hiding him off-ball is probably the best bet. Shooting like Jordan's certainly has it's value, but at his age and with where he currently stands in other areas I have a hard time justifying spending a first-round pick on him.
Tier 6 (Firmly Draftable)
The numerical rankings are pretty fluid within a handful of spots moving up or down. Every tier after this has no real numerical weight and is completely fluid.
37. Jaime Jaquez
Jaime is a player I just buy to help his team win, even in a more limited role. He is a strong connective passer who isn't creating anything without the help of a screen, but can find cutters when stationary and can exploit the tinniest of cracks in the defense to get the ball to teammates. Since he is likely to be a poor traditional athlete at the next level, he relies upon excellent footwork and general craft to get himself anything from a self-creation standpoint. The touch is decent on layups and mid-range shots, though he would benefit from trying to add floaters into his game. The shooting is basically spot-up only, and although it won't likely be to a high level, I buy it as being good enough to not be a true liability within his game. Defensively he is best off the ball as a low man who makes the right rotations and is gritty, diving for any loose ball. On-ball he should be able to hang against opposing forwards, but anybody much quicker will be a tough assignment for him. Jaime does a lot of the little things as a glue guy to keep his team flowing and isn't ever going to make any crazy advantages or flashy plays, but has the chance to be a serviceable role player for several years.
38. GG Jackson
GG is a bit of a polarizing prospect with a wide range of perspectives and potential outcomes, but I tend to fall on the lower end. I'll start with the good. GG Jackson is a really solid shooter who I think can self-create from beyond the arc. I really like his offensive footwork and think he uses it well in the mid-range. Outside of that there is not much I currently buy, and I have him as high as I do because I am betting on the age and frame to maybe one day be serviceable on the defensive end. The rest of the offense to me seems rather rough. I think the he misses a lot of passing reads and really has a tough time as a finisher who can't adjust in the air, and has yet to figure out how to absorb contact properly. Defensively I am 100% betting on age being a key development factor, because I currently am not enthused about anything with him on this end of the floor. There are far too often poor and late rotations, lazy contests, and perimeter blow-by's from opponents. Overall the motor just seemingly runs very cold with him on that end of the court, but hopefully in a professional context there is a bit of a spark lit. This is purely an "Upside Swing" on raw talent and age in the hope that it develops to a potential starting type role for a team, but I really just can't see star level upside with him at this point time, otherwise he wouldn't be in my second-round.
39. Mike Miles Jr
Mike Miles really took his finishing to another level this season, where I think he can now really maximize his start and stop ability as a pace setting ball handler. His ridiculous acceleration is the engine of how he brings value on offense. Using his change of pace to keep defenders guessing and catch them off balance so he can continuously put pressure on the rim and open windows for his passing, remains one of the best utilization of tools/skills in this entire class. I feel comfortable about him playing off the ball as a shooter as well, allowing him to be a two-pronged threat off the catch. He is obviously positionally limited to guarding one position in the league because of his size, but he does try hard and is quick enough to stay in front of most guys. As a backup point guard I do not think there are many better options in this class.
40. Bilal Coulibaly
If I haven't lost you yet, don't let me lose you now with this ranking. I'll preface this by stating that I totally do get why people have Bilal top ten and higher. In the past I have fully bought into prospects in similar ranges due to similar overlying principles of extraordinary athleticism and youth. Maybe it is because of being burned on this before, but that point of intersection for me with Bilal has him as more of a second-round flier. I don't really let past prospects determine how I view current ones, but I do like to think that I have maybe learned at least a little bit from my past mistakes in a much broader sense. So let's get into it. Offensively I think Coulibaly does already have some NBA level skills, but they are pretty limited to mostly being a cutter and finisher at this point. That isn't to say other parts of his game can't continue to develop and grow at his very youthful age, but it is worth noting some things are very much a bet at this point rather than any sort of sure thing. As far as the finishing I do think his amazing athletic tools including his bounciness and load time as a leaper, and incredible wingspan, allow him a baseline level of finishing capabilities. I am not a huge fan of the touch, and that goes for his overall shooting outlook as a whole. I don't really buy serviceability with the shooting in any regard at this moment. Against the lesser U21 competition he seems to be a lot more confident in his handle, and is likely allowed by the coaching staff to be a bit more experimental. Having said that, it seems very underdeveloped at this point. It is very loose and not reactive enough to pressure, though I thoroughly enjoy the pace he can push with the ball in his hands in the open court. The shot selection in general outside of the easier assisted finishes, just aren't to a level I feel comfortable with projecting as a player I trust for extended periods with the ball. On defense it is a lot of projection of tools for me right now, and I definitely see the value in how they can be maximized, but in my opinion that isn't the case quite yet. Though I do see him as a very good defender right now, I don't think he is necessarily elite, but I am also not ruling that out as an outcome for him in the future. For the most part I like his on-ball defense and think against wings and guards that aren't ultra quick he can hold his own very well. I think he is good at switching and coming off of screens, while sealing gaps solidly. Off the ball I have some rotational concerns while acknowledging age can be a big factor in this regard. I think there is really enticing help side rim protector equity if he can reign in how much momentum he puts into leaping towards opponents. The rebounding is the final aspect of Bilal's game that stood out to me. Quick load time and long arms should translate to solid rebounding. There is obviously a lot to weigh with Bilal, and I think ultimately a project pick who I envision as only really offering much value one one end of the court is a player I'm much more comfortable taking in the second.
41. Jordan Walsh
Jordan Walsh's defensive intrigue is very evident to anyone who watches him play, and it's worth taking firmly into the second round. He is a guy who can be a lockdown on-ball defender on the perimeter with his +8" wingspan and traditional athletic traits. He can create havoc off-ball as well or when he decides to double as a help defender. Offensively it is really rough, the shot is not completely broken or helpless, and the age leaves a lot of room for development, but the touch is not good at this point, and I don't have the highest of hopes of it coming around. I do really like his connective passing however, especially on the move in forced reactive settings. The handle is really bad, but he at least does not have an aversion to attempting to utilize it. The cutting and finishing are likely to be his bread and butter as a low usage offensive player early on, with the adaptability to find teammates on the move, but beyond that it is just a lot of hope. I think Walsh has a real chance to stick in the league as a defensive ace who can do just enough on offense to not be a complete liability, and I think that is fair enough value in the second.
42. Keyontae Johnson
Strictly in regards to on-court production, I think Johnson's versatile skillset is intriguing. With a very strong frame, Keyontae is able to finish through a considerable amount of contact and can have some versatility while in the air. If he finds himself running out of real estate, he is a solid connective passer along the baseline. He can shoot with limited space and is comfortable with tight closeouts. On the ball the burst is extremely bad and prevents him from being much of a driving threat, even as an attacker off the catch. Defensively he is a solid enough wing and forward defender, but switched onto smaller guys he will be a liability. It is difficult to write about someone with the allegations he has, but he is likely to receive NBA interest regardless so I decided upon including him.
43. Ben Sheppard
Ben is a low upside player who does enough things well to make me think he can stick in a rotation for any team. He has a pretty solid first-step off the catch or coming off of screens that he uses to get downhill and finish well, though the explosion out of dribble moves is quite poor. Able to take contact and finish with either hand, I think that aspect of his game can be solid for him moving forward. He doesn't really create much for others with poor passing accuracy, and isn't really even a connective passer making any reads, but more of a ball mover who just doesn't let the ball stay in his hands for an unnecessary amount of time. The spot up shooting is another serviceable trait with him that I think can be fairly high level on spot-up catch and shoot situations without much versatility to it. Off the ball on defense I really enjoy his activity and ability to never lose sight of his man, running alongside him wherever he may go. He digs well as a help guys and can navigate screens. On the ball he is too quick to bite on pump fakes and gets blown by quite a bit. Just a steady player who can fit into his role and play it well, I think Sheppard has nice role player outcomes.
44. Mouhamed Gueye
Mo Gueye is another project type guy that I am willing to bet on in the second-round to maybe provide an interesting combination of skills as a big man. Defensively speaking Gueye I think has some real switchable equity to him. He can slide on the perimeter and seal gaps well. The tools are there for him to be a good rim protector with very quick load time as a leaper and long arms, but he really seems to struggle tracking the ball in that role and at least for the time being is best suited as more of a help side guy. Rebounding I think can be a big asset for Mo with how quick and long he is. I can see him being an offensive board fiend who can create some second chances for his team. Offensively Gueye as a lot of flashes, but nothing substantial enough for me to buy into as anything more than a traditional rim runner at the next level. Has a little bit of a handle, but it is not tight or reactive enough to be functional in the half court. There are too many times where he holds the ball waiting for someone to cut rather than keeping the ball moving. Though he can make some nice finds to cutters, he is very pre-meditated with his passing. The footwork is fairly bad on post-ups and the touch is really inconsistent. Mo has some weird upside as a switchier low man on defense who can be an effective play finisher on offense near the rim, but there are too many other questions I have for me to take him much higher than this.
45. Andrew Funk
Andrew Funk is another fantastic Penn State shooter in this class who can really get hot from deep in a variety of ways. He is maybe the quickest at getting set of any shooter I have seen, and can hop, step and drift into any shot from deep. There is a little bit of juice beyond the shot on offense though. It isn't anything crazy, but Funk can effectively attack closeouts and make simplistic, yet crisp passes on the move. He is very pre-meditated as a finisher and not able to adjust much once near the rim. defensively he can actually stay in front of off-guards and some wings to a decent degree, though he isn't making any plays on or off the ball on that end. Funk can really shoot it, and there is a tad bit beyond that he can bring to the table. Shooting alone usually isn't enough for me to view a prospect as draftable, but with how many ways Andrew can get his shot off, and the other limited ways he can be passable, I see him as a worthy second-round pick.
46. Emoni Bates
Emoni is a pretty interesting player to me. Scoring is probably what most will first point towards with him, but while I think there are some things to like, there is a lot that seems to need developing. Starting with the shooting, Emoni has some of the most severe knocked knees you'll ever see, with a right-footed kick out on almost any shot. It isn't beautiful, but it can be effective mostly thanks to some unreal touch at times. Now the touch is hit or miss with him, it isn't consistent by any means, but when it is there it really is impressive. However, he does not put himself in enough situations to effectively showcase it. He is overly forcing things off the dribble too much, and when he starts his shooting motion looking away from the rim (often times looking at the ground), he tends to miss. This tendency showed itself as a trend to me as I watched more of his games, and is something he needs to eliminate entirely. As a finisher I was actually impressed with some of the flashes he showed a two-footed leaper and the length of time he could float in the air at some points, but he misses some way too easy looks far too often and has yet to prove himself as a consistent finisher. When the ball is in his hands I actually really enjoyed his scanning of the floor and how he always keeps his dribble alive. Against a tilted defense I think he gets downhill well, but likely isn't doing so in isolation settings. Off-ball I think is where he is suited best as a shooter, a fantastic cutter (especially off of jabs) and underrated connective passing. On defense I was pleasantly surprised by his off-ball activity and thought his rotations were crisp. On-ball is where I have concerns, as I think he isn't able to stick in front of busrtier guards at the point of attack and the thin frame can prevent him from effectively guarding wings and forwards on a consistent basis. A guy who can maybe be a solid shooter, keep the ball moving, and is a decent team defender is worth a pick to me even if none of those things get to a super high level and the rest never comes around.
47. Mojave King
A longtime favorite of mine, Mojave King is a player that can take on a multitude of roles for his team. Whether it be as a point guard in a pinch thanks to a fairly quick first step and steady pick and roll presence, or as an-off ball guard/wing who can get hot in catch and shoot situations, I really like the adaptability to role that King can provide. He's really athletic in terms of both speed and leaping ability, and without the touch being great, he can usually finish at a well enough rate. As a passer it is a lot of simplistic reads, and he isn't doing much of it without the help of a screen or attacking an already tilted defense due to a handle that lacks complexity or reactivity to a strong enough degree. On defense Mojave can play the point of attack or serve as an off-ball guy who can occasionally get lost or make the wrong decision, but is steady for the most part. Even at times filling the role of a low man who can block shots as a help guy, Mojave shows a lot of versatility on defense. Nothing he does screams high level, but I think the amount he can do at a good level warrants a pick.
48. Nikos Rogkavopoulos
One of the better international prospects in this class, Rogkavopoulos doesn't seem to even get brought up too much in second-round discussions. There's a lot of offensive value to be had with a player that can shoot like Nikos, who does possess some shot versatility, and can really pass on the move or stationary as a connector. He's quicker than you might expect upon first glance, as a guy who can attack closeouts and tilted defenses, though the finishing leaves a bit to be desired in terms of versatility. Defensively he also holds his own out on the perimeter. He'll have trouble against really quick guys, but against most other opposing backup wings he should have few problems. Rotationally he can be a little slow to get where he needs to , though it is more due to his legs not being quite quick enough rather than late recognition. Overall I just view Rogkavopoulos as a strong shooting bet who is more of a contributor than a liability in most other areas.
49. Jordan Miller
Somewhat of a Swiss-army knife, Miller doesn't have a truly bankable skill at the next level, but does have a lot of "good enough" type skills to keep him on the court for a team. He is a solid off-ball player offensively who is mostly going to be asked to attack on secondary and tertiary actions, and can execute such tasks well enough to get himself finishes at the rim or make the right passing reads. He can tend to over force things at the rim, but for the most part can finish fairly well, though the touch isn't great. His passing is quick and decisive, never letting the ball stay in his hands for too long. Shooting wise it is basically just hoping he cant hit spot-ups at a good enough rate without being a liability, which I tend to believe he can. Defensively he seemed at his best off the ball. Good recognition to jump passing lanes and rotate well, with well timed strip attempts on drives as a help defender. On the ball he can be a bit overly anticipatory, biting on pump fakes, with poor ground coverage in recovery situations. Miller is just a player you hope can come in for limited minutes and play within a scheme without doing too much else.
50. Trayce Jackson-Davis
TJD projects to be a lot more of a backup rim running big to me than a starting caliber center. Offensively he likely won't be getting the same volume of post creation attempts that he did in college, and I think he lacks some finishing versatility in a role that might relegate him more to that. He has a nose for offensive boards and tip-ins, often positioning himself well, and using his great strength to do so. I don't love the touch and think he could benefit using his right hand a bit more as a finisher to extrapolate as much versatility as he can in a play finishing role. He is a really solid screener and roller, who makes some nice short roll passes, despite not being the quickest leaper, limiting some of his effectiveness as a lob threat. As a passer he has great awareness and accuracy, generally in the mid/low-post, finding cutters and composed under double-teams. Defensively I find Jackson-Davis a bit underwhelming, not really active as help side guy, and more of a post defender than a primary rim protector. TJD has some interesting nuance to his game, I am just not confident it can ever be of value that is worth giving high minutes to.
51. Alex Fudge
Alex Fudge is a one-way player, but the potential impact of his defense makes him worth a draft pick. Offensively he's strictly limited to being a cutter. I've said that if you are looking for more in-depth evaluations to go and listen to our podcast episodes, but in this case I literally have no other details to give you as far as Fudge's offensive impact and potential. He is strictly a cutter who is athletic enough to catch some lobs, but I have seen nothing else that leads me to believe there is any untapped potential or hope for him to make significant strides on that end. All of that said, he does have potential to change the course of a game with his defense. Because of his offensive deficiencies he would likely have to play sparingly, but the defensive ability to be one of the few true 1-5 on-ball defenders in the league with his length, verticality, and lateral athleticism, makes a mid to late pick in the second worth it. He has off-ball value as a quick enough mover with his length to pick off passes. There's so much to like on the defensive end with Fudge, even without any offensive capabilities, leading me to rank him where I do on my board.
52. Charles Bediako
Another very simple prospect, Bediako remains a solid bet at a long career as a backup center. He won't be doing much on offense outside of setting solid screens, rolling hard, and finishing from the dunker's spot on lobs and put-backs, but there's not a ton more one should expect out of their backup center. Though it is worth noting he has improved consistently as a passer out of double teams and the short roll. Defensively he is giving you a reliable and steady presence as a drop defender who uses his length and timing more than any crazy leaping ability as a shot blocker. I have been a long time Charles Bediako fan, and believe in him as a decent caliber backup center who can hold the line when the starter sits.
53. Trey Jemison
The final player I'll give an explanation on, who I buy firmly as a player that I would spend a pick on, is Trey Jemison. Jemison is yet another solid bet at a backup center. He's not a quick twitch athlete, but he does have some pretty impressive strength that he uses well in a variety of ways. His rebounding was solid, thanks to the positioning that he was often able to establish for himself. His screen setting is probably my favorite in this class, with not only how much contact he initiated with opponents, but the awareness of angles he had when setting them in order to direct players over or under when coming off of them. He also used his strength as a space clearer to help keep opponents away from the paint and open up driving lanes for teammates. He's mostly going to be a drop big, but does have some sneaky movement ability on the perimeter against certain opponents if he happens to get caught out there. As a scorer he is basically just a clean up man and assisted finisher out of the pick-and-roll, with some potential to maybe hit the occasional quick baby hook out of post ups with decent touch. Jemison might not stand out for a lot of people, but when I looked at his film closely I thought he had backup potential at the next level as a little things king who consistently made a lot of the right decisions.
If you've made it this far I am genuinely appreciative of anyone who took the time to understand where I am coming from with some of my rankings, and I look forward to seeing how they pan out in the future.
Tier 7 (Late Second-Rounders/Priority Two-Ways)
54. Sir'Jabari Rice
55. Kobe Brown
56. Colin Castleton
57. D'Moi Hodge
58. James Nnaji
59. Isaiah Wong
60. Armaan Franklin
61. Caleb McConnell
62. Nate Laszewski
63. Craig Porter Jr
64. Dane Goodwin
65. Seneca Knight
66. Rayan Rupert
67. Jalen Slawson
68. Umoja Gibson
69. Taevion Kinsey
70. Noah Clowney
71. Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu
72. Tristan Vukcevic
Tier 8 (Would consider giving a two-way)
73. Adam Flagler
74. Hunter Tyson
75. Jacob Toppin
76. DeAndre Williams
77. Drew Timme
78. Myreon Jones
79. Taylor Funk
80. Gabe Kalscheur
81. Dexter Dennis
82. Tosan Evboumwan
83. Justyn Mutts
84. Omari Moore
85. Olivier-Maxence Prosper
86. Pete Nance
87. Malachi Smith
88. KJ Williams
89. Malcolm Cazalon
90. Jalen Wilson
91. Kevin Obanor
92. Leon Ayers III
93. Emmit Matthews Jr
94. Logan Johnson
95. Kamaka Hepa
96. Jarkel Joiner
97. Vinicius Da Silva
Tier 9 (Priority Sumer League invites)
98. Matt Bradley
99. Courtney Ramey
100. Tyree Appleby
101. Marcus Carr
102. Mario Nakic
103. Leaky Black
104. Brandon Slater
105. JT Shumate
106. Kendric Davis
107. Patrick Gardner
108. Isaih Moore
109. Oscar Tshiebwe
110. Sam Griesel
111. Justin Powell
112. Landers Nolley II
113. Xavier Castanneda
114. Erik Stevenson
115. Tyger Campbell
116. Jaylen Clark
117. Rasir Bolton
118. Antione Davis
119. Tom Digbeu
120. Kyle Lofton
121. Cam Shelton
122. Jalen Pickett
123. Matthew Mayer
124. Hunter Maldonado
125. Drew Peterson
126. Adama Sanogo
127. Markise Davis
128. Mike Bothwell
129. Tyrell Roberts
130. Wendell Green Jr
131. Nick Ongenda
132. Jazaian Gortman
Tier 10 (Possible Summer League invites)
133. Osun Osunniyi
134. Javan Johnson
135. Keye van der Vuurst de Vries
136. Joey Hauser
137. Jaren Holmes
138. Toumani Camara
139. Ben Vander Plas
140. Markquis Nowell
141. Nathan Mensah
142. Timmy Allen
143. Angelo Allegri
144. Efe Odigie
145. Davien Williamson
146. Adam Kunkel
147. David Singleton
148. Chris Livingston
149. Azoulas Tubelis
150. Noah Locke
151. Jayden Gardner
152. Jordan "Jelly" Walker
153. Tanner Groves
154. KC Ndefo
155. Eral Penn
156. Rudi Williams
157. Khalil Shabazz
158. Vincent Valerio-Bodon
159. Jamarius Burton
160. Desi Sills
161. Matej Rudan
162. Keshawn Justice
163. Marcellus Earlington
164. JaVonte Pekins
165. Nelly Cummings
166. Qua Grant
167. Sincere Carry
168. Miryne Thomas
169. KJ Buffen
170. Manny Bates
171. Will Richardson
172. Cedric Henderson Jr
173. Derrick Walker
174. Marcus Shaver Jr
175. Miller Kopp
176. Sage Tolbert III
177. Malique Jacobs
Tier 11 (Also considered)
178. Nick Sibande
179. Jake Stephens
180. Aleksandar Langovic
181. Souley Boum
182. Flo Thamba
183. Eric Williams Jr
184. Gideon George
185. Race Thompson
186. Yuri Collins
187. Jaylen Martin
188. Filip Rebraca
189. Josh Roberts
190. Lovro Gnjidic
191. Kihei Clark
192. TJ Clark
193. Uros Plavsic
194. Emmanuel Akot
195. Milan Barbitch
196. Setric Millner Jr
197. Ed Croswell
198. Gregor Glas
199. Bryce Griggs
200. Yor Anei
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