Stone's Big Board

I’m writing this board as a way to give a brief explanation for each ranking of a player that I view as firmly draftable in any given draft. This class has definitely been underwhelming as a whole, especially given how incredible last year was, but I do think that there is still some real value to be had. If the following words don’t provide a satisfactory reasoning for my rankings, I would encourage you to check out the Upside Swings podcast to get much more detailed explanations on prospects, as well as my latest article that discusses my draft philosophy and what I look for. I’ve had some of the most fun evaluating this class than I have in a long time, and I greatly appreciate everyone's support this cycle. 

Tier 1 (Top 5 in Most Drafts)

1. Ron Holland 

While there is no consensus top pick in this class, I believe there should be. Holland is the clear best prospect in my eyes, and I’ll do my best to explain why. The most obvious area of polarization with him is the shooting, and I tend to really buy it. While he does have a stiff back on pull-ups, I believe it still has a solid base to work around, and the touch around the rim really stands out on film. He may not ever be above average, but I do think that in due time it can get to the point of not being a liability within his game. What really sets him apart for me is his playmaking on both ends. He is a walking paint touch and a constant rim pressure player, as evidenced by the fact that 56% of his shots came from around the rim. Though he may have a bit of a slender frame, he has a lot of strength, and has no issues taking bumps en route to the rim. His footwork is underrated, and the lower body athleticism he shows on drives with his foot and shin angles, combined with his court mapping and timing of when to pick the ball up on drives, really make him an incredible slashing force. He is not the most complex court reader as a passer, but I do think he creates so many easy looks for teammates with how he pressures the rim, that he doesn’t have to be. In transition his passing really shines, and he does show some flashes of willingness to attempt more unique deliveries in order to thread needles. Defensively he does a nice job of timing his double teams, and though I like his playmaking as someone willing to jump passing lanes to create transition opportunities, I do think he could stand to reign in some of the gambles on that end of the court. On the ball he is strong and long, and should be able to guard a majority of NBA level wings, especially as he continues to build up his frame. Holland provides a lot of pathways to being a very impactful NBA player in a draft that seems to be limited in that regard, and I am comfortable putting him in his own tier.    

Tier 2 (Top 10 in Most Drafts)

2. Alexandre Sarr

The next in a line of special defensive big men taken in the top 3, Sarr figures to keep that trend alive, by providing very high level defense in a different way than we have grown accustomed to. He may not be the same level of rim protector as Mobley, Holmgren, or Wembanyama (though he is no slouch), but he is a very talented switch defender. He has mastered the ability to make life difficult for any player trying to attack the rim, by forcing opponents into uncomfortable angles so that he can then alter shots as they approach closer to the rim. Elite off the ball, Sarr digs hard at the nail, perfectly times when to double, and is fantastic overall as a help rotator. Because of these rotations, along with his great length and load time, he can be effective as a primary rim protector, but he currently does struggle as a post defender. Offensively I think I tend to be lower on him than those who have him as the unequivocal #1. I don’t love the touch or hands around the rim, and see a major lack of any polished footwork as a post player. Mechanically speaking the shot needs work. A very low dip, wide base, and severe inward bend of the right leg, are all tweaks that need to be made in order for him to not look so uncomfortable as a shooter. He is not much of an advantage creating ball handler beyond the open court, but can keep it alive in the half court. As a passer he is very quick to identify the open man in scramble situations, but is not often reading the court in totality or with much complexity, somewhat limiting him as a player who can’t always see the best pass available. Overall I think his load time, second jump, length, and quick identifications of open teammates within a confined space, make him an ideal candidate to be an effective play finisher as a pick-and-roll lob threat who can pass in the short roll, and clean up misses around the rim. Rebounding shouldn’t be much of an issue, because despite the lower base needing added strength, he times his jumps very well, and uses his length to gather the ball at the crest of where upward and downward trajectory meet. It might take a little bit for teams to figure out just exactly how to use Sarr the most effectively, whether as the sole big on the court, or as half of a big man tandem, but I think the unique skillset he offers will be difference making regardless. 

3. Isaiah Collier

I don’t understand why Collier is not unanimously viewed as a top 3 prospect in this class in the way that Sarr is. In a class devoid of prospects with outcomes that include offensive engines, he stands out. The best rim pressure player in the entire class, his ability to get to the rim at will and collapse defenses, combined with his incredible passing, makes for a lethal skillset. His burst is elite, including out of dribble moves, and his frame is founded on compact muscle that overwhelms opposing guards, allowing for a consistent breach of the defense from the point of attack. Once he gets to the next levels of defense, he is able to withstand substantial contact while keeping his balance. Finally, at the rim, he uses verticality and strength to launch himself into defenders, and finish through heavy contact. He is not a top tier vertical guard athlete, but with the head of steam he can often create for himself, he uses the runways wisely. He is not only a scorer though, he is also a fantastic passer, who dealt with an often cramped court at USC that somewhat veiled his true passing abilities. He can squeeze in tight window interior passes, but he also examines the court in totality, identifying which teammates will be open for a pass before he starts his drives. Collier is a fantastic off-ball player too, using his speed to cut all over the court and beat defenders, while busting out his playmaking chops to identify passes off-ball that he can then throw once he gets the ball. Offensively this all sounds like what would be the top pick in this class, but the problem is that he is not much of a shooter, and I don’t really believe he will be, at least to an average level. I don’t love the touch around the rim, and oftentimes his makes from there come from sheer athleticism rather than touch. I also don’t think he shows much touch from anywhere else on the court as a shooter, though it is there in his passing. On defense he has the makings of being a hassle for opponents to deal with. He uses his twitchiness as an athlete to move well with ball handlers and get out in front of passing lanes. All the muscle he has makes me feel pretty confident that he can physically take on just about any guard. Collapsing defenses and being a great passer is a rare and very valuable combo.

Tier 3 (First-Rounders)

4. Matas Buzelis

Buzelis is a case of less being more. The handle is just not functional in a halfcourt setting outside of attacking straight line drives against mismatches. However, even though he is not some sort of point forward, he does possess a really intriguing skillset. The big question is the shot, and I buy it. I think the touch is really solid, and although he may need to make a couple of tweaks mechanically, with the wide base and load time, he does have a high release. Around the rim he lacks explosion and can’t take on much contact with his current frame, but he does make really nice use of his length to extend past defenders. Without the handle being very functional to create, it does mitigate a lot of playmaking upside that might’ve existed at one point. Even still, he is really savvy with his deceleration and stride length, using both to create space between himself and defenders to open up passing lanes that otherwise would not be accessible. As a defender there is a lot to like. He has some of the best hand placement in this class both as a shot blocker and a steal generator. He covers a ton of ground, moves fairly well laterally, and tags rollers, making him an ideal fit in a low man role as a help side rim protector. The biggest area of needed improvement is the lack of strength that prevents him from being an effective primary rim protector at any point early on in his career. This also applies to his perimeter matchups, where stronger wings and forwards can physically bully him to the rim by attacking his chest and core. There are a lot of pathways to success with Buzelis, and rim protection+shooting offers a lot of value.

5.  Rob Dillingham

Let’s start with the positive. Dillingham has a case for the best shooter in this class. He is comfortable pulling up off the dribble, but where he really excels is as an off-ball shooter. Coming off of screens, one dribble relocation shots, or as a C&S spot-up player, I always felt confident in a long range jumper from him. The touch is really nice around the rim too, leaving me with very little doubt that his shooting will translate to a high level in the NBA. As a driver he has a lot going for him. The shin angles he produces are very impressive, along with the explosiveness as a finisher when he has a full head of steam. The issue here is that he is just so thin, and although he is fairly crafty, providing varied finishing angles in a controlled manner with either hand, he struggles with contact absorption. He has a very tight handle with a high level of complexity, but loses a lot of the advantage that creates by lacking explosion out of dribble moves. He should still be able to provide some rim pressure against mismatches, but he may require the use of offensive screens to get downhill at a frequency higher than one might expect for a player with a handle as advanced as his. When tasked with being a playmaker, I think he is seeing things at a high level, even if not elite. The variety of passes he can make with either hand is impressive, though the accuracy, especially on lobs, could use improvement to become more consistent. The biggest issue most will point to with him, is how he will be targeted on defense, and I’m not going to disagree with that sentiment. Despite the motor actually running fairly hot with how much effort he gives on that end as an on-ball defender, it often just doesn’t matter with how he gets bullied by opponents all the way to the rim with his slight frame. What I will say though, is that I don’t have many motor or awareness issues with him on that end as much as I do with his inability to make an impact despite those traits, due to a less than ideal frame. I think Dillingham has the opportunity to be a really efficient scorer and more of a secondary playmaker, but fear that whatever team he goes to will view him more as a lead initiator, which in my opinion exploits more of his weaknesses and mitigates more of his strengths. 

6. Jaylon Tyson

I value Tyson this highly because I think he can provide winning plays to whatever team drafts him, in a multitude of ways. What impresses me most about his offense is how much he can process simultaneously. Whether it is scanning the court while setting a screen, or looking ahead to where he intends to pass the ball as he is running towards a handoff, Tyson always seems to be a step ahead. I don’t think he has much equity as any sort of lead initiator for a team, but I love what he can do against an already tilted defense. Pull-up equity, passing on the move, and strength to take hits as a driver and finisher, all make me think he can really excel in such a role. Even though he is decisive with the ball in his hands, he is not always seeing the best pass available, along with a lack of handle complexity, his upside as a primary becomes quickly limited. The shooting seems to project as efficient, with his strength allowing for deeper shots, though there is not much movement equity. Defensively he has the footwork and strength to be an effective enough on-ball defender against opposing wings without being any sort of stopper, but he does have some issues with consistent rotations off-ball, and doesn’t have much playmaking upside on that end overall. There are a lot of ways Tyson can impact a game, and ultimately I tend to bet heavily on smart players who have a high translatability to winning basketball. 

7. Reed Sheppard

Often billed as the best shooter in this class, it is easy to see why. Sheppard’s efficiency was off the charts, but he also gave a lot of reason to believe in his versatility as a shooter, running or hopping into shots while coming off of screens at full speed. Although he has a great vertical, he is mostly a below the rim finisher, and his lack of length is more concerning when considering the lack of creativity he has around the rim. As a playmaker, I struggle to buy much on-ball equity, as he is a quick identifier of the open man, but does not give much consideration to the proximity of help defenders. When driving he is really crafty with foot angles and timing, opportunistically taking advantage of any gaps that his defender may open up off-ball. He bucks the wingspan allegations on defense by being an incredible havoc creator, thanks to impeccable anticipation and hands, never allowing a pass to feel truly open for the offense. On the ball he will always have the effort, but there are a lot of outcomes I see that involve him being targeted. He is a pretty unique case study moving forward, but I do have faith in his shooting and off-ball defensive havoc creating translating to some degree if nothing else. 

8. Donovan Clingan

I have a high level of confidence in Clingan reaching starting center level outcomes, making it hard to leave him out of the top 10. That said, there are some concerns that come along with him that make the truly high end outcomes tougher for me to see materializing. He is a drop exclusive big, who is no doubt effective at the rim as a shot blocker. The slow lateral mobility and load time as a leaper means he has to really time things perfectly, and to his credit he does, but it leaves a smaller margin for any errors. He’ll have no problems with contact at the rim with his frame, and he does provide a level of post defense that nobody else does in this class. Offensively I feel as though it is tough to bank on him as anything outside of a post scorer and clean up guy. I have little faith in the shot developing to any meaningful level, and without it, I think a lot of what he did at UConn as a passer gets mitigated in the NBA. Though I do really enjoy the quick reads, crisp release, and nice placement of his passes, there are just less ways to utilize that aspect of him against NBA defenders. He does a good job using his massive frame to his advantage by sealing defenders in the post, screening, and boxing out. While I do think Clingan enters the league with a baseline value that is impressive, I think maximizing it to a degree that ascends him into higher end outcomes will be an uphill challenge. 

9. Zaccharie Risacher

There are a lot of things I like about Risacher, without much that I love. I really enjoyed his team defense, and how he was consistently locked in with both his man and the ball at the same time. On the ball I think he is solid. Sticking with drivers from the perimeter very well, with quick hips that allow him to do so. I don’t see much that would indicate him being any sort of lockdown defender, but I don’t have many concerns either. Offensively I do see the shooting being plenty serviceable, though adjustments to the wide base and limited lift would only boost my confidence in that. The touch is fine, and he has no fear of closeouts, but he definitely needs to improve his accuracy when speeding up his release. I think he’ll be able to get to the rim at a fairly decent rate given the fluidity of his handle and burst being above average relative to his size. Despite the numbers at the rim this season, I have a lot of belief in the finishing, as I liked the flashes of touch, the concentration, and the craft he displayed around the rim, without being contact adverse. I like Risacher as a prospect, just not at the very top of this class. 

10. Dalton Knecht

Everyone will point to the shooting with Knecht as the first thing that makes him worthy of a top 10 ranking, and I understand why. He has no regards for contests, can hit shots off the dribble and off of movement. I think the touch is good, not great, but what I enjoy most about him as a scorer overall is how he plays at his own tempo. He is never sped up by defenses, and will shoot when he is ready, not when the defense tells him to. I find his court mapping to be high level as well, usually making a lot of the correct reads when the ball is in his hands. I don’t think he can really get to the rim on his own without screens or tilted defenses, but I really think he is a good driver. He generates a lot of power from his legs, doesn’t have many issues taking on contact, protects the ball around the rim without diminishing his control, and has good explosion, especially off of one foot. He definitely has all the makings of an effective three level scorer. He lacks a lot of polish on-ball defensively, and though he isn’t often lost off-ball, he is slow to get to where he needs to be. There is something to be said for someone who can score the way Knecht can at all three levels, but his ancillary game has some flaws, which are amplified by the fact that he will be 24 by the end of his rookie season. 

11. DaRon Holmes II

Holmes feels like a safe bet to be a positive NBA player, no matter what percentile outcome he hits. The high motor, high energy big, is a really efficient roll man, has an upper body strong enough to finish through contact, and the vision to be impactful as a passer in the short roll. The touch is solid, and is enough to make me buy in on Holmes as an efficient face-up mid-range player, even though it is tougher for me to be as confident in his three point shooting. I think he can be a good post scorer, especially with how well he seals off defenders, but he would make things much easier on himself by adding lower body strength and more advanced footwork. The ability to handle the ball really adds to the amount of versatility Holmes offers and the ways his new team can utilize him. One of the best off-ball defensive trackers in the class, he consistently positions himself well to contest drivers at the rim. He is also capable of being the low man or switching on the perimeter, really giving great optionality to coaches. There is so much to like about Holmes and the amount of pathways he has to being effective at the next level. 

12. Devin Carter

An excellent athlete and defender, Carter is a menace for opposing teams to deal with. He is a lockdown defender on the perimeter who thrives at the point of attack, but is vertically capable, and rotationally aware enough, to be a positive low man defense for teams. He smothers drivers all the way to the rim, and his vertical prowess makes him tough to get a shot over. Really the only area of needed improvement is his defensive screen navigation. Offensively is where my concerns lie, but none of them are to the degree of fearing that he will be a complete negative on that end. As a primarily off-ball player I think he is a good connective passer who at times is overly premeditated. I buy the shooting to a lesser degree than most, due to the track record prior to this year telling a different story, and not loving what I saw with his touch, but I don’t think it will be a complete liability. He is an aggressive driver with incredible shin angles, and impressive explosion around the rim. The handle and passing reads as an initiator are fine, but aren’t at the level of someone who can take on full time playmaking duties, and I view him very much as an off guard or wing. In addition to the hustle he provides in every other area, Carter’s motor runs extra hot when it comes to rebounding. Oftentimes not a huge factor for guards, but with him it is, as he will provide legitimate glass crashing for his new team off the bat. It’s easy to see why he is such a favorite amongst evaluators with how tenacious he is.

13. Isaiah Crawford

This is a year of just taking good basketball players despite age, and Crawford certainly profiles as such. What I like most about him is how he uses his body. He generates tons of power from his legs that he uses to propel himself towards the rim as a driver. Once at the rim, he is extremely flexible, especially within his core, allowing for a high level of contortion as a finisher around the rim. Crawford is someone who can get to the rim on his own at times, not only with the power he generates, but the core torque he uses to misdirect defenders and create slivers of space and angles towards the rim. Along with a pretty controlled handle, I think he will be a big time free throw machine. While I don’t think he provides a ton of overly intriguing attributes as a playmaker, he is generally fine as someone who can make basic reads when attacking closeouts and provide connective passing. Shooting wise I feel similarly. I don’t see a ton from him that excites me, but I also think he is a fairly safe bet to space the floor as a spot-up guy well enough. Defensively Crawford’s hands really allow for him to be a playmaker on that end, poking the ball away both on and off the ball. I don’t think he is effective enough as a leaper to be a full time low man, but I do think against most wings he will be a net positive defensively. Even though he may not have high end outcomes that impress much, I think a lot of his lower end outcomes still project as fairly valuable. 

14. Cody Williams

By far the hardest player for me to evaluate this cycle, Williams is a fun challenge to dissect. On offense he has a lot of room to grow, but seems to have a baseline foundation in most facets that keeps me intrigued. The handle is loose, but not to an uncoordinated or uncontrolled level, and he is comfortable dribbling with either hand. He has good touch as a finisher, and uses his length really well to extend past shot blockers around the rim. The confidence in his shot from deep comes and goes, but when present, it definitely looks like a shot worth buying into. Reading the floor as a passer is a struggle for him at the moment. It seems like he processes things slightly late, and the accuracy needs improvement. His defense is also a work in progress. He doesn’t have a ton of issues staying in front of opponents, but he does have problems successfully preventing them from getting to the rim due to his extremely thin and weak frame. He prefers to let players get around him so that he can contest from behind with his length to avoid players attacking his weak frame head on. In time I think this will be less of a problem for him, but early on it certainly will be something opponents will exploit, and it could play a factor in the amount of minutes he is anointed, which are crucial for other areas of his development. He does use his length well to cover ground, contest pull-up jumpers, and make occasional digs as the help defender. Williams is who I am the least confident in with my evaluation of anyone in this class. I completely understand both the skeptics and the propagandists, and think I fall somewhere in between. 

Tier 5 (Late-Firsts/Early-Seconds)

15. Tristan Da Silva

Coaches are going to really latch onto Da Silva. He reads the court as a driver, and always seems to have a plan, rarely caught off guard by the defense. Very poised, he never rushes or forces anything, limiting mistakes. His shooting is his greatest strength offensively, proving to be reliable as a spot up guy, and confident as a pull-up shooter, especially from mid-range. As a driver, he is doing most of his damage getting to the rim off the ball, or via open lanes from closeouts and tilted defenses off of straight line drives. As a finisher, he is not overly impressive or concerning, which is the case for much of his game to be honest. He is a really solid simplistic passer who makes the right reads the majority of the time, but does not create much. He also displays unique deliveries, especially as a bounce passer. He can get lost as an off-ball rotator on defense at times, but when he has time to anticipate he is generally getting where he needs to on the court. Jumping passing lanes from behind the opponent frequently, he is rarely gambling in a destructive manner. On the ball he is average to slightly below average with his foot speed, and has slow hips, but should be able to hold his own against larger wings and forwards. Da Silva also impresses me as a post-up defender, sticking close to guys and not giving up positioning easily. He is a good bet to be a rotation player who can provide positive minutes, without having much upside. 

16. Jaylen Wells

Wells is a clean and easy fit for every team. With an incredibly deep range, beautiful touch on his shot, and very quick shot prep, he is an awesome catch and shoot bet. However, he does flash some off the dribble shooting ability too, with a manipulative enough handle to create enough separation to get himself open. The handle is not good enough to get him all the way downhill from a standstill, but he can get into the mid-range for a pull-up. At the rim, he struggles as a finisher, and it’s difficult to project enough improvement for it to be something that one can ever rely on. Generally, he made the right passes, but most of them were just to keep the ball moving. He really impresses both on and off-ball on the other end, keeping himself constantly engaged. He rarely gets back cut or out of rotation off the ball. On the ball he stuck close to wings with good footwork, so good in fact, that he was also able to effectively stay in front of bigger guards. The ability to hold his own defensively on a consistent basis, and shoot at a high level, makes for a modern wing that everyone would be happy to have in their rotation. 

17. Kyle Filipowski

Maybe the most polished offensive big in this class, Filipowski is easily projectable on that end of the court. His footwork is extremely advanced, and he takes smart angles to the rim when posting up. That said, he could stand to not force quite as much as a finisher. The touch is good, not great, and gives me reason for pause when projecting it out to three. I do think it can be a weapon in the mid-range, but I’m not confident enough to feel as though the three will be a part of his game definitively, though there are outcomes where it is. He is a good passer, who uses his reactivity as a tool to adjust to the defense when driving to the rim or in the post to find the open man. Where it all comes crashing down for me with him is the defense. I just struggle to see where he can avoid being a liability on that end. If he is the sole big on the court and is drawn away from the rim via a post-up, or his opponent is spacing the floor, he is unable to recover in time, not only athletically, but also because of his poor simultaneous tracking skills. On the perimeter he really struggles to stay in front of quicker players, especially with his slow hips. Defending in space, whether it's a switch away from the rim, or a pick-and-roll from the mid-range and beyond, will usually result in an open shot for the opponent. I get the appeal of Filipowski, and I have a strong level of confidence in his ability to score, but I find him to be more situationally dependent in the NBA due to the defensive concerns. 

18. Nikola Djurisic

In a class full of safer and more steady bets, Djurisic is a wildcard. I think he is one of the best pure passers I have ever evaluated, and is the best in this class. He is capable of threading needles with either hand, making skip passes while jumping the opposite direction, and nailing behind the back dimes. That said, I think a lot of the passing equity is left on the table, because I don’t view him as someone who can really collapse a defense on his own from a standstill. He can really attack straight line drives hard, and while on the move make nice reads, but he isn’t going to be the one to initiate the sucking in of a defense. At the rim, he is strong and creative, but the touch flashes are too far and few between for me to be confident in that aspect of his game translating to a high level. He made nice strides this year as a shooter, and it really showed that he worked on his shooting off the catch, accelerating his shot prep and reading closeouts better. On the other end, he really struggles with getting caught on screens, oftentimes completely taking him out of a play. He is capable of staying in front of players on an island, with good footwork and quick hips, but does not put up much resistance when taken to the rim. Off the ball he has developed by reigning in his gambling tendencies to go for a steal, but he does still make mistakes rotationally, and can be slow to cover ground when in help. Djurisic is a ton of fun to watch, but there are real flaws to his game that prevent him from being an immediate positive impact. 

19. Kyshawn George

Quite possibly the slowest player in this year’s draft, George will have to find ways to overcome his glaring lack of acceleration and top speed. The big offensive selling point is his shooting. He squares up extremely fast, has amazing shot prep, and a beautiful looking condensed phone booth shooting form. Great touch from three, and very deep range, has me all in on his shooting projection, as he even shows flashes of shooting off of movement. He’s a great cutter with a strong awareness of when to time them. The main question is, what does he do with the ball in his hands? To be honest, I really don’t see that being a functional part of his game at the next level. The burst is so bad, and the handle, though not completely unworkable, is high and loose. Much of his passing seems to be more out of necessity rather than actual playmaking, but nevertheless, some of the passes have impressive touch and delivery. He struggles with physicality, and this shows up not only on his drives, but also as a finisher, where he has some aversion to contact and absorbs it poorly. The defense all comes down to the right assignments for George in my opinion. When up against wings and forwards, he does a decent job for the most part on the ball. Now, against quicker players, he is going to have some major issues, and once the handler passes him, there is little to no hope for him in recovery situations. Off the ball, he impresses with how quickly he can absorb space on closeouts, thanks to his long frame. However, he can get lost at times and he doesn’t have a consistent effort put forth when closing out. I like him specifically in an off-ball role, and if he can grow to be a more reliable defender, I think he provides a skillset that every team would covet on the wing. 

20. Stephon Castle

This is the first real big disagreement on rankings that I have with consensus. I suppose the place to begin is by clarifying my view of his NBA role, because I do think it matters. I view Castle exclusively as a wing, not a guard, and I’ll do my best to explain why. The easiest thing to point to is the shot. I just don’t buy it, and most of it has to do with really poor touch, especially on any jumper. I also think the handle and burst are really lacking in a guard role. Now as a wing, he is totally fine, and quite possibly above average. However, as a guard I think he will have trouble being the one to initiate the collapse of a defense with the handle lacking a good bit of complexity, and sub-par explosiveness both as a driver and finisher. His passing is really solid, and I enjoy it at a connective level. Unfortunately, as a primary playmaker I don’t see him having the same access to those passes due to everything mentioned prior. Additionally, he more than likely won’t be in the same context and heavy movement oriented scheme that he was in at UConn. He could anticipate a lot of passes that would be available in drawn up sets, but in scramble situations I thought the processing waned a bit. He would often pick up his dribble in these instances and examine his next steps. With more reactive heavy reads bound to happen at the next level, I think it further exploits some of these issues. Even with all the shortcomings, Castle does show a strong motor, with a propensity to do a lot of clean up work around the rim. Defensively is where the real intrigue lies with Castle. He is great at sticking next to players all the way to the rim and making the entire drive uncomfortable. His hips flip very well, and he has no fear of contact. Off the ball he is always engaged, and makes life difficult for opponents to gain separation. He is a really good defender both and off the ball, maybe even great, but I do not view him as elite. He is not much of a playmaker, and is not the game tilting menace in a way that someone like Marcus Smart is. That is fine, because almost nobody is, but I do think that distinction matters to me when considering all of the offensive uncertainty. Many will disagree with me on Castle, and I do understand why, I just come away with a differing perspective. 

21. Kevin McCullar Jr. 

For my money, McCullar is the best perimeter defender in this draft. He has incredible hands, is smothering players on and off-ball, and is great anticipating the next play. Drivers find themselves turning the ball over frequently as Kevin wrestles it from their hands when they try to get towards the rim. Although he isn’t quite the athlete Carter is to possibly play in a low man role, McCullar profiles as a truly elite point of attack and wing defender in my eyes. Offensively it will be a challenge. I do think he has more to give than a lot of other defensive specialists in this class, but it is bleak nonetheless. In the pseudo point guard role at Kansas this year, it became clear that he just does not have the awareness, passing touch, or handle to be a playmaker. The shooting touch is bad, but he also shows just enough flashes from three to make me believe that he can maybe shoot at a respectable enough rate on spot-ups, and provide some level of inconsistent spacing. I do worry that McCullar just never gets a real NBA opportunity, and that teams view his age, injury history, and offense as not worth the elite defense he provides. However, I do feel confident that if provided the opportunity, McCullar’s elite defense will translate.

22. Jonathan Mogbo

A very fun player in this class, Mogbo really offers a unique skillset. On the defensive end he is very solid on the ball, both in the paint and out on the perimeter. Moving his feet well with good lateral speed, he is able to provide a positive impact in switch heavy schemes, but is strong and long enough to defend post-ups as the low man. As the full time rim protector he is further behind as an off-ball tracker than I’d like, sometimes a tad late rotationally. The reaction time, along with the height, might just be too much for him to overcome in order to be the sole big defensively on the court at any given time. On offense he is very decisive with the ball, never waiting too long to figure out what he wants to do next. This is the biggest reason he is so effective as a passer from anywhere on the court. He may not be making the most complex reads, but he will make quick ones that catch defenders by surprise. Unfortunately, I don’t buy many outcomes that involve Mogbo stretching the floor as a shooter, but I do think he can still be an effective passer in dribble hand-offs and attacks towards the rim against mismatches with his handle. I think he profiles as a really intriguing roller, who’s passing can be accentuated in the short roll, and who’s quick load time, catch radius, and hang time, all make for a high level finisher at the rim, especially as a lob target. In addition, straight line drives and activity from the dunker’s spot are most of what I see in his future offensive outlook. The final point that I think is worth mentioning, is his extremely high motor. He is constantly engaged, and this is a big factor as to why he’s so impactful as a rebounder, along with his very long arms. Mogbo is a fascinating prospect who is more adaptable to various contexts than some may initially think.

23. Tyler Smith

Probably the easiest player to evaluate in this entire class, Smith’s simplistic game can still be impactful. The offensive sell is that he is a 6’10” shooter who is athletic enough to be effective in the dunker’s spot and as a pick-and-roll finisher. The shooting is not very versatile, which is to be expected at his size. He has to have his feet planted to be efficient from deep. The handle is good enough to attack in a straight line, but not much beyond that. The passing outlook is not the most positive, as he struggles to read any sort of help defense. On defense he is big enough to be a solid low man, but on the perimeter has slow hips that will be a problem in any sort of switch heavy scheme. Overall Smith can be a real floor spacer with size who can fit into any lineup, but he is not offering much else.

24. Carlton Carrington

This might sound strange considering many have him higher than this, but the fact that Carrington is this high, is more of a testament to just how dominant his strengths are, rather than a knock on what he can’t do. In most cases I would have a player who is a poor defender, and doesn’t get to the rim at all, much lower than this. Carrington is not like other players though, because he has figured out a way to continuously utilize and weaponize his greatest strength. Before going any further, I do want to note that he was one of my favorite players this year, and I loved watching him just as much as those who are highest on him. I may disagree with the value of what he brings to an NBA team, but you can bet that I will be tuned into his career wherever he goes, because he is that fun to watch. Anyways, where it all really begins and ends with him is the shot, more specifically off the dribble pull-ups. He is a maestro with this skill, and has no issues pulling up from anywhere in any situation. He has also weaponized it to draw help and consistently keep defenses on their toes, so much so that he has them biting on fakes so that he can open up more space for himself and access more passing angles. His passing really impresses me, as he consistently keeps track of where his teammates are, and has no problems making skip passes to the other side of the court. What really concerns me, is that he has to do all of this from the mid-range and beyond, because he is not able to get himself to the rim. This limits so much of what Carrington is able to access, and puts a severe cap on any sort of playmaking upside. The handle is really herky jerky, and he is great at changing directions with the ball, but he lacks any sort of explosion out of the limited dribble moves that he has. The few times is at the rim, the finishing is uninspiring, as he lacks explosion and strength to overcome contact. I think he makes some technical mistakes on-ball defensively that lead to him getting blown by, and has some strength concerns that lead to drivers finishing though him. Off the ball he doesn’t really have anything that majorly concerns me, but I also don’t see much that really leaves me believing that he is going to be impactful. I really want Carrington to work out because I enjoy watching him so much, but I do have concerns that so much of his success is dependent on tough shot making.

Tier 5 (Firmly Draftable)

25. Anton Watson

Watson is a player I’ve long viewed as an interesting prospect, and have enjoyed his notable improvements along the way. He’s taken strides to be much more fluid as a ball handler, and is more than comfortable attacking opposing forwards on straight line drives in a way he hadn’t been prior. I was really impressed with his touch during his time in college. He has feathery finishes around the rim on hook shots and push floaters. His finishing is fairly versatile for his size, and he does not have many issues with taking on contact. A solid passer out of the high and mid post, he examines the court in totality for cutters, operating dribble hand-offs, and rarely making mistakes. The shooting is a work in progress, but he looks increasingly confident taking spot-ups. I’m not sure there’s anyone who’s touch indicators I buy more in this class as a projection for long range shooting. He has come a long way defensively with his foot speed, and laterally moves fairly well. He is a smart scheme player, who is rarely out of position, and can handle post-ups well. I wouldn’t be interested in him as a full time primary rim protector, as he isn’t overly quick off the ground or long. I admittedly have a tendency to be high on players like Watson, but I do think that in this case there is a lot of appeal to a player who makes few mistakes and offers multiple ways to be utilized. 

26. Oso Ighodaro

Someone I was not expecting to be this high on, I came away pleasantly surprised when I watched Ighodaro closely, after only viewing him peripherally last year. He really pops to me as a finisher. He has possibly the quickest load time out of anybody in this class, and can really take advantage of it in the dunker’s spot and in pick-and-rolls. His touch is very soft, and he makes the most of it by shooting baby hooks and push shots. I’m not confident in his ability to stretch the floor from beyond the mid-range, but he maximizes what space he does have to work with as a passer. He’s excellent at finding cutters and making quick interior reads to the other side of the block, but is reliant on teammates creating those opportunities for him to make those passes, as he is not the one playmaking. On the other end he is a smart team defender, rotationally making the right reads, and quick enough off the ground to be an effective helpside rim protector as the low man. As the primary rim protector, he is not strong enough to withstand attacks to the rim, and was often moved out of position by the finisher. I find it easy to envision Ighodaro as a productive backup that can provide positive minutes in his role, even though the upside is limited.

27. Ryan Dunn

I’ll just start with the obvious to get it out of the way. Dunn is a bad offensive player, and I don’t believe in that ever changing. He has zero confidence as a shooter, and at times passes up wide open spot up opportunities as defenses sag off of him, daring him to take the bait. The touch is horrendous, from basically every possible area of the court, and he is not going to be handling the ball. The one area I am impressed with was his passing, but that isn’t going to be very useful when there is no other offense to supplement it. On the other end is where I see why people have real intrigue. The ground coverage is amazing, and he can make up a lot of time in recovery situations. He challenges drivers at the rim effectively, both as a low man and on-ball. His length makes it tough to get around, and his hands are quick enough to poke the ball free. As good of a defender as he is, I don’t find him to be the same level of truly elite perimeter defender in the way I do McCullar, that said, I do think he is more versatile, and can play in a multitude of roles at a high level. It’s going to take the right context for Dunn to succeed, but the defensive dividends are too much to overlook at this point for me. 

28. Jared McCain

McCain is a fantastic shooter, both off the dribble and as a spot-up guy. He has no problem decelerating from his top speed and rising up in transition. Apart from shooting, he can also rip through defenders from the perimeter and use a quick first step to get past the initial line of defense towards the rim. Once at the rim, he does have issues with length and is unexplosive, especially off of two feet. He has good touch, and makes the most of it with floaters and mid-range pull-ups. His passing is really good, and he will generally be able to find the open man, but he is not overly complex with how he reads the court. On defense McCain is very engaged off-ball. He isn’t playmaking much, but he is not letting himself get beat either. On the ball he is limited, and can only really stay at the point of attack due to his size. He does put forth a strong effort, but it generally isn’t enough to make him anything other than a negative as an on-ball defender. It’s a somewhat limited pathway to success for McCain, but a worthwhile bet on shooting, in addition to some possible rim pressure as a driver. 

29. Tyler Kolek

Kolek is perceived to be safer than I think he actually is, but I get it. He is a comfortable ball handler who is not collapsing any defenses without a screen at an NBA level, but a very good passer in tight spaces, and can get the ball where it needs to go. The handle, burst, and top speed are all underwhelming, and he’ll have to rely on the craft he has to operate past the point of attack in order to maintain an advantage. He is very cognizant at all times of how the court is shifting, and adjusts accordingly. As a finisher he is not very versatile, but is a scoop layup king who protects the ball on the way to the rim. He will have to get more comfortable attacking from the right, as he heavily favors the left currently. Shooting wise he is comfortable using screens to open himself up off the dribble, or squaring up on spot up attempts. He won’t be caught ball watching too often off-ball on defense, and on the ball he does an admiral job, occasionally poking a ball free from a handler. The upside is limited, and I perceive the lower end outcomes as worse than most, but the median that I think Kolek can maintain has value in a backup role.

30. Kel’el Ware

I understand those that have Ware top 10, because at one point I was there too. Over time I started keying in to some other things that diluted the value of his raw skills for me. I really like the upside of Ware, but I am more skeptical of the attainability of it than I was in years past. The tools are all there for him on both ends, but not applied in a way that maximizes them. I’ll start with the defense, because I think that is the most intriguing and concerning end for me. Ware is very mobile for his size. His feet move well and he can get where he needs to quickly. The primary issue is that he has trouble recognizing where he needs to be. The biggest reason for this in my opinion is that he struggles to track multiple things at once. He is very locked in to either the ball or his man, but rarely both to an adequate enough level. This leads to teams drawing him out of the paint frequently so that they can cut behind him, knowing he won’t realize it in time. When he is near the rim, the shot blocking can be really impressive. The length and load time he has can make for a really special rim protector. The fact that he has such strong mobility, could allow for him to exist in some switch schemes. Ware really struggles as a post-up defender, where the lack of strength really is noticeable. It’s not all bad though, as he does dig well at the nail as the help at times, and the ground coverage is incredible. Many will point to Ware’s motor issues as the culprit for a lot of his faults, and while I do think that exists, I think it is separate from his awareness, and I’m far more worried about the latter. On offense he has the touch on hook shots and shows some face-up ability. The three-point shot is projectable, but I don’t find the touch from deep as appealing as I once did. The processing issues pop up on this end too, where the shot selection can seem a tad late, and make for a poor decision. I do think he is the best lob prospect in this entire class though, as he has incredible load time, hang time, and length to really grab lobs from anywhere. Ware is a complete upside bet on some incredible natural gifts to outweigh any processing issues, and one I’m willing to make in the late first of this class. 

31. AJ Johnson

A late edition to my board, Johnson really intrigues me. He is undoubtedly another upside swing, but there’s enough flashes to put the effort into his development. The explosiveness he has athletically really allows for him to keep defenders on their toes and open up angles that otherwise would not exist, as they have to anticipate an explosive drive at any second. The handle is good without being great, but the explosion out of moves is what really allows him to get downhill. He will have to improve at reading the court as he launches towards the rim, as he definitely over prioritizes scoring, and doesn’t do a great job of balancing the initiating. When near the rim, he uses his great vertical pop to get himself as close as he can for an easier finish, but his lack of strength really hurts his ability to take any contact and will completely throw off his plans. He does have decent touch as a shooter, and from deep is comfortable taking contested jumpers off the catch. On defense he is long, but not strong, and uses that length as best he can, but regularly gets exploited without much strength to put up resistance. Off the ball he can be caught ball watching too much, and gets out of position too often. An explosive rim pressure guard who might be able to shoot well off the catch is a really enticing skillset, but there are definite warts that will take time for Johnson to iron out if NBA player outcomes are to ever materialize.

32. Johnny Furphy

Furphy has a clear pathway to positive production, but I find it a narrow one. He has real shooting touch, and at his size he flashes occasional movement potential. Most of it will be best off-ball, as I don’t think he has the same level of manipulation to take limited dribbles in order to create separation in comparison to someone like Wells. Outside of shooting, I start to really question what else Furphy can bring to the table at a NBA level offensively. He can recognize cuts, but needs to do it with more conviction, which I think is fairly fixable. He moves well off-ball overall, recognizing where he needs to be as a shooter in order to shift the court for teammates. On the ball I think he struggles as a driver, taking poor angles to the rim and not having a strong enough handle to avoid the contact that he struggles to play through. He is a good connective passer, but isn’t doing much beyond that. I think his very slow hips on defense make for a perimeter nightmare against a lot of matchups. He has real length, and if the footwork can improve he can mitigate some of this, but as of now the perimeter defensive outlook on the ball is bleak from my perspective. Off the ball I think he is fine. Occasionally he makes a good read and can get his hand on a pass, and is not getting beat to spots very often. Furphy’s got a real shot to be an impactful player as a big wing who can shoot at a high level and hold his own defensively, the pathways to success are just fewer than I would be comfortable with taking any higher. 

33. Adem Bona

Bona was a big riser for me in comparison to how I viewed him last year. He was put in a disastrous role as a post-up player, but he did show enough to convince me that he could be a productive backup big. He is very much a simplistic and limited offensive player. He is a rim running finisher who can clean up on second chance opportunities. His overly predetermined mindset isn’t reactive enough between shooting and passing, limiting a lot of things for him. I am not comfortable betting on him to provide a ton of versatility from his role on offense, though I am impressed with his touch improvement on baby hooks and push shots around the rim. Defensively is where the real sell for Bona comes, as he is a really good shot blocker. He has instinctual great hand placement to stuff finishers at the rim. He stays nice and vertical for the most part and avoids committing too many fouls. Though he is often in the right position, I would like to see him challenge more from the weak side, as he rarely did so in college. He is undersized, and although a very good athlete, he is not an elite leaper, making the radius that he can be an effective rim protector a little more condensed. Bona is as good a backup center bet as any at this stage in the

 draft for me, and I do feel pretty safe about his defense as a whole translating to a positive level.

34. Nikola Topic

I know that I am going to have to explain myself on this one, and I am ready to. The biggest disconnect I seem to have with those who are much higher on Topic, is that I don’t think he is the level of driver that the numbers might indicate. I struggle to see him generating rim pressure at an NBA level. I don’t think he has enough burst, independent of any injury concerns. He is not regularly blowing by ABA defenders, who are skilled players, but sub-par athletically in comparison to NBA players in general. I think he will be heavily screen reliant in order to get himself downhill. The passing is very good, and I think the vision matches it, but I don’t find either to be particularly elite. As a shooter I have questions, but I do think he has legitimately good touch, especially off the dribble when he is in rhythm. The handle is good, but he kills his dribble too frequently for how good it actually is. Around the rim he was a very good finisher who used his strength and great touch to consistently produce efficient results. On defense I don’t see any major concerns with any sort of off-ball awareness or engagement, but on-ball he is consistently hunted in pick-and-rolls and blown by on the perimeter. I understand the appeal of Topic for sure, but from my perspective I have concerns with the rim pressure, shooting, and on-ball defense, which lead me to this ranking. 

Thank you for taking the time to read through all of this, hopefully I was able to help answer any questions. If you enjoyed any of my draft content this year, I genuinely appreciate your support, and I am already looking forward to putting out more for the 2025 class.

Tier 6 (Late Second-Rounders/Priority Two-Ways)

35. Pacome Dadiet

36. Baylor Scheierman

37. Melvin Ajinca

38. Jaylin Williams

39. Bobi Klintman

40. Yves Missi

41. Zach Edey

42. Cameron Christie

43. Boogie Ellis

44. Dillon Jones

45. Keshad Johnson

46. Tristen Newton

47. PJ Hall

48. KJ Simpson

49. Trey Alexander

Tier 7 (Would Consider Giving a Two-Way)

50. Judah Mintz

51. Tidjane Salaun

52. Bronny James

53. Ja’Kobe Walter

54. Justin Edwards

55. Jamal Shead

56. Harrison Ingram

57. Malevy Leons

58. Antonio Reeves

59. Jalen Bridges

60. Isaac Jones

61. Cameron Spencer

62. N’Faly Dante

63. Enrique Freeman

Tier 8 (Summer League Invites)

64. Taran Armstrong

65. Yongxi Cui

66. Trentyn Flowers

67. Ajay Mitchell

68. Juan Nunez

69. Reece Beekman

70. Babacar Sane

71. Ulrich Chomche

72. Zyon Pullin

73. Martez Brown

74. Michael Caicedo

75. Riley Minix